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Ray of Hope - 149th Draw - CEC

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skgimcanada

Star Member
Apr 30, 2020
93
81
nat.abramovich said:
I actually have a trv number its on email, but are you sure that without hardcopy i can create account?
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They don't ask a hard copy of any document while creating profile.
For IELTS you need TRF number, the date of exam conducted, date of result declared, and your score for which you will claim the points. CIC directly contact to IELTS exam conducting agency for the authenticity of your results and for that they only need your TRF number which is unique for each candidate.

Good luck.
 
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vasu5656

Star Member
Dec 20, 2019
87
48
jrossi said:
I’m not trying to spread negativity. It’s the exact opposite: I’m trying to make people realize they need to go an extra mile, and try to increase their scores. Simple as that.
I’ll loose 6 points in less than 10 days, and I’m not praying and hoping that I’ll get an ITA at 469 (because I know I won’t). Instead, I’m waking up every day at 04:30 AM to study French before I go to work.
For me, it’s French, for others it might be a better IELTS score, etc.
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Why you will lose 6 points? only 5 points right? I just re-calculated the CRS score with increasing age and score dropped by only 5 points, was wondering why people are talking 6 points nowadays instead of 5 points due to age increase.
 
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jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
vasu5656 said:
Why you will lose 6 points? only 5 points right? I just re-calculated the CRS score with increasing age and score dropped by only 5 points, was wondering why people are talking 6 points nowadays instead of 5 points due to age increase.
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I’m 30, going to 31, so 6 points.
I already lost 5 points from 29 to 30.

Would be 5, instead of 6, if I was married.
 
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nat.abramovich

Hero Member
Apr 18, 2019
230
48
skgimcanada said:
They don't ask a hard copy of any document while creating profile.
For IELTS you need TRF number, the date of exam conducted, date of result declared, and your score for which you will claim the points. CIC directly contact to IELTS exam conducting agency for the authenticity of your results and for that they only need your TRF number which is unique for each candidate.

Good luck.
Click to expand...
Last question bro, date of declaration gonna be in two days from now,the fact that that date is after rceiving ITA? Is it a problem
 
J

jrossi

Hero Member
Jan 13, 2020
506
699
newbiealpha said:
Well I disagree. I believe if FSW draws resume within a month then after a few draws score will drop significantly. If you look at the pool there are not many people in 460-470 range. Actually in this range people are dropping continuously (some profiles expiring some losing age marks). As we know IELTS is not happening in most parts of the world and due to lock down not many people are able to apply for ECA etc so not enough profiles are being created. Earlier close to 4000 people with higher than 470 were applying every two weeks which was the reason that score was not dropping. Now in year 2020 at least that won't be the case, ECA takes 10-40 weeks depending upon the organization you chose. Since not many people have been able to apply in March, April and May (due to lock downs around the world) you'll see that in next few months not many new profiles would be created so score is bound to drop. Anyone above 465 by the end of year should be very confident and I believe even low 460s also have a chance.

This is my opinion and you could disagree.
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Have you done the math?
Because if you did, you would know that prior to these PNP/CEC, the rate of new candidates in the range of 450-600 (which was the range we used to know), was around 320-350 new candidates/day. Now, that rate is around 240 candidates/day.
Yeah, it’s around 30% smaller than the regular rate (which I don’t think is THAT small, frankly), and you must at to that the fact that all these high scoring FSWs are being accumulated in the pool.
So, once FSW reopens, we’ll have MONTHS of high scoring candidates sitting in the pool + new profiles being added AGAIN at 340 candidates/day. Remember: when everything was normal, and we didn’t have that gigantic buffer of candidates, a mere 3 week gap between draws would be enough to skyrocket the cutoff. Imagine what will happen now. If on the “regular scenario” people at 469-470 wouldn’t be able to get an ITA, why do you think they will be able to get now?

People must analyze numbers. Seriously. IELTS hasn’t stopped, WES hasn’t stopped. People continue to enter the pool.
 
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newbiealpha

Star Member
Oct 26, 2017
108
36
jrossi said:
Have you done the math?
Because if you did, you would know that prior to these PNP/CEC, the rate of new candidates in the range of 450-600 (which was the range we used to know), was around 320-350 new candidates/day. Now, that rate is around 240 candidates/day.
Yeah, it’s around 30% smaller than the regular rate (which I don’t think is THAT small, frankly), and you must at to that the fact that all these high scoring FSWs are being accumulated in the pool.
So, once FSW reopens, we’ll have MONTHS of high scoring candidates sitting in the pool + new profiles being added AGAIN at 340 candidates/day. Remember: when everything was normal, and we didn’t have that gigantic buffer of candidates, a mere 3 week gap between draws would be enough to skyrocket the cutoff. Imagine what will happen now. If on the “regular scenario” people at 469-470 wouldn’t be able to get an ITA, why do you think they will be able to get now?

People must analyze numbers. Seriously. IELTS hasn’t stopped, WES hasn’t stopped. People continue to enter the pool.
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Yes lemme share some numbers earlier we know score was not dropping below 470 even when 4500 invitations were issued in a gap of two weeks. Thats because roughly 500 people would be PNP rest all were FSW/CEC etc. So New profiles having score of 470+ were being created at the rate of 3000+ every two weeks. Now FSW draw has not happened for over two months now and compare the data from 13th March 2020 to data published on 25th March 2020. Hardly 3000 people have been added in that range in 10+ weeks. So I would say rate at which new profiles are being created having score 470+ have dropped by a huge margin.


Data Date13-Mar-2005-Apr-2014-Apr-2027-Apr-2012-May-20
25-May-20​
Cut off 467 464 455 452 447
CRS Score Range Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate
601-1200 448 479 65 461 482 310
501-600 254 390 213 318 417 433
491-500 197 317 190 267 356 329
481-490 421 910 746 924 1,117 1,168
471-480 1,047 2,423 2,233 2,635 3,140 3,311
471-600 1,919 4,040 3,382 4,144 5,030 5,241


IELTS was not happening in many parts of the world due to lock downs. People in India please confirm if it has resumed or not yet.
Another thing to remember is that people are not able to gather all the documents they need to send to WES due to lock downs. If lets say lock down is lifted in India now and they gather all the documents it will still be 10+ weeks before they'll get their ECA and will be able to create the profiles. Hence for a foreseeable future we'll not see old rate of new profiles creation i.e. 3000+ profiles in two weeks having 470+ scores.

Thats why I believe once FSW draws resume then just after two draws score will drop significantly.
 
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nat.abramovich

Hero Member
Apr 18, 2019
230
48
newbiealpha said:
Yes as long as you have taken the exam and know your result you are good, you 'll have ample time to gather all required documents once you get the ITA. You should get the invite tomorrow.
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But pyshical copy with declaration will be in teo days, for now i only have online results,is that still enough?
 
S

skgimcanada

Star Member
Apr 30, 2020
93
81
nat.abramovich said:
Last question bro, date of declaration gonna be in two days from now,the fact that that date is after rceiving ITA? Is it a problem
Click to expand...
Its a bit tricky but I don't think it would be a problem because your score (to claim points), TRF number (to check authenticity), and date of exam conducted (to check expiry date) are the most crucial stuffs.
Dates, online and printed, usually differ by a day or two. If you could call the exam center and ask if they could provide the date of the forms printed which would be best.
 
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nat.abramovich

Hero Member
Apr 18, 2019
230
48
skgimcanada said:
Its a bit tricky but I don't think it would be a problem because your score (to claim points), TRF number (to check authenticity), and date of exam conducted (to check expiry date) are the most crucial stuffs.
Dates, online and printed, usually differ by a day or two. If you could call the exam center and ask if they could provide the date of the forms printed which would be best.
Click to expand...
I am on cec 445 ( tomorrows draw could be the last possible chance for me lol
 
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