Ray of Hope - 147th Draw - CEC

[AMC1985]

I know this is a bit far fetched..but here is my query. I have been working in Canada on a WORK PERMIT for 2 months now. My current score is 449. Do you think there is a chance that I may receive an ITA soon considering that they are inviting only folks who are already in Canada? Since my Canadian work ex is less than 1 year, I do not really qualify for CEC. Please share your opinion. Thanks.

 

[NiclasB]

I know this is a bit far fetched..but here is my query. I have been working in Canada on a WORK PERMIT for 2 months now. My current score is 449. Do you think there is a chance that I may receive an ITA soon considering that they are inviting only folks who are already in Canada? Since my Canadian work ex is less than 1 year, I do not really qualify for CEC. Please share your opinion. Thanks.

That would be the smartest thing to do for Canada. But no. Unfortunately there has been zero signs that they are planning to do that. It seems like they are happy enough using the shotgun spread of CEC instead.

 

[Pyruvate1]

Good news, as at today, 96,000 employers have applied for the 75% wage subsidy, this means 1.7million people are getting their jobs back excluding the 518,000 businesses that have applied for the 40,000cad loans. Those that think unemployment will be there for the next 10 years, think again

 

[jrossi]

As I said. No IELTS happening. Situation is becoming more and more intense
Even ECA too not happening almost
Good news is once IRCC conducts FSW draw, score will dip down to 455 (in 3 to 4 draws) as opposed to some super illogical experts who r adamant that score will be 470 plus
No IELTS (Till Aug possibly) and no ECA happening is directly proportional to great reduction in CRS score (if FSW draws happen)
The 470s were clinching every ITAs from September 2019. Upcoming 470s can wait for few months and let the 460s n 50s breathe as well
Super enthusiastic dudes waiting to rock IELTS have to unfortunately wait

If you look at the 450+ range, you'll see the disparity between previous and post pandemic scenario really hasn't changed that much.
Up until early March, the 450+ range would receive around 260-340 new candidates/day (that's both from new profiles, as well as candidates who increased their scores and got to the 450+ range). Now, that number is ranging between 200 and 240 new candidates/day.
If anyone wishes to confirm these numbers, just get the sum of people in the 450-1200 range on the previous draw, then subtract the number of people invited in the previous draw, and then get that amount and subtract it from the current number of people in the latest 450-1200 range and divide by the number of days between each reference date of the pool distribution taken.

Seriously, don't take the whole COVID-19 situation as "the pool is frozen" scenario, because it's definitely not. The math shows that. The pool continues to receive new candidates in the range that matters.
I think it's EXTREMELY unlikely for us to see the CRS dropping below 468-470 once the FSW draws return. As a matter of fact, I'm at 475, and I'm seriously worried about the possibility of future FSW draws achieving 480, due to the amount of FSW/CECs that are being accumulated in the pool in the 470+ range.

 

[vmsanthosh.chn]

If you look at the 450+ range, you'll see the disparity between previous and post pandemic scenario really hasn't changed that much.
Up until early March, the 450+ range would receive around 260-340 new candidates/day (that's both from new profiles, as well as candidates who increased their scores and got to the 450+ range). Now, that number is ranging between 200 and 240 new candidates/day.
If anyone wishes to confirm these numbers, just get the sum of people in the 450-1200 range on the previous draw, then subtract the number of people invited in the previous draw, and then get that amount and subtract it from the current number of people in the latest 450-1200 range and divide by the number of days between each reference date of the pool distribution taken.

Seriously, don't take the whole COVID-19 situation as "the pool is frozen" scenario, because it's definitely not. The math shows that. The pool continues to receive new candidates in the range that matters.
I think it's EXTREMELY unlikely for us to see the CRS dropping below 468-470 once the FSW draws return. As a matter of fact, I'm at 475, and I'm seriously worried about the possibility of future FSW draws achieving 480, due to the amount of FSW/CECs that are being accumulated in the pool in the 470+ range.

Possible argument, but a whole lot of high scored PNPs and CECs greater than 451 have all gone. And they are also coming from the same pool right. With WES closed and less new IELTS intakes during this situation, aren't we seeing a chance? Only possible competitors are those accumulating Canadian experience, which anyways not gonna be a lot after the recent washouts. We might see a dip, for a shorter period of course, when things are back to normal.

 

[jrossi]

Possible argument, but a whole lot of high scored PNPs and CECs greater than 451 have all gone. And they are also coming from the same pool right. With WES closed and less new IELTS intakes during this situation, aren't we seeing a chance? Only possible competitors are those accumulating Canadian experience, which anyways not gonna be a lot after the recent washouts. We might see a dip, for a shorter period of course, when things are back to normal.

There are many points to be considered. While yes, you're right to suppose that CECs might be unemployed and therefore taking longer to achieve bonus points, we should also consider that candidates in quarantine might be taking this moment as a one-of-a-kind opportunity to study for IELTS/TCF all day, and once these tests schedules start to open, we might see a huge number of candidates increasing vastly their scores because they had months of full-time preparation. Who knows?
Another point to be considered is that many people around the world might have lost their jobs, and therefore, could be in need of using their emergency funds right now, so they may not be able to become eligible to FSW due to lack of enough proof of funds (myself included... I lost around 30% of my funds, due to a huge devaluation of my currency compared to the Canadian dollar).
It's kinda (extremely) hard to predict how each of these elements will impact the pool distribution.

 

[Timbuktu_14]

I see it dropping to 460 or less on February 30th, 2021. Just hang in there

Lol, you are wicked

 

[seadrag0n]

I see it dropping to 460 or less on February 30th, 2021. Just hang in there

You missed by a day, its Feb 31st, 2021.

 

[SabrinaKim]

I am at 483 as an in-land FSW. I have lost my words since fsw draws were on halt. Why wouldn't IRCC figure something out for FSW inlanders

 

[seadrag0n]

I am at 483 as an in-land FSW. I have lost my words since fsw draws were on halt. Why wouldn't IRCC figure something out for FSW inlanders

There is no category for inlanders.

 

[SabrinaKim]

There is no category for inlanders.

I know but they can find ways to sort out who's in Canada. Pull up CRA or Visa information. But sure they won't go that far for no reason. I am just venting as it's pretty frustrating in my shoes.

 

[joey.slater]

I know but they can find ways to sort out who's in Canada. Pull up CRA or Visa information. But sure they won't go that far for no reason. I am just venting as it's pretty frustrating in my shoes.

Can you please elaborate on how do you have 483, inland and not CEC? Does that mean you don't yet have 1 year of experience and you created profile recently?

 

[joey.slater]

There are many points to be considered. While yes, you're right to suppose that CECs might be unemployed and therefore taking longer to achieve bonus points, we should also consider that candidates in quarantine might be taking this moment as a one-of-a-kind opportunity to study for IELTS/TCF all day, and once these tests schedules start to open, we might see a huge number of candidates increasing vastly their scores because they had months of full-time preparation. Who knows?
Another point to be considered is that many people around the world might have lost their jobs, and therefore, could be in need of using their emergency funds right now, so they may not be able to become eligible to FSW due to lack of enough proof of funds (myself included... I lost around 30% of my funds, due to a huge devaluation of my currency compared to the Canadian dollar).
It's kinda (extremely) hard to predict how each of these elements will impact the pool distribution.

The future cutoffs will highly depend on when the FSW draws start? If the IELTS and WES processing starts every where first, then the cutoff is gonna stick in the 470's range but if the FSW draws start before that then we might see it falling down to 460's.

 

[Sharanm7]

Is there anyone here tried the IELTS computer based, is the result really takes 5-7 days? or sometimes 3 days? thanks

I appeared for IELTS thrice through CD IELTS only. You can get your result in three days (through IDP Australian website) and TRF in 5 days.

 

[SabrinaKim]

Can you please elaborate on how do you have 483, inland and not CEC? Does that mean you don't yet have 1 year of experience and you created profile recently?

I recently finished my post graduate study here which qualified me as a two or more degree holder. That ramped up my CRS score.