Can anyone give their thoughts on how the score will range for the next 4 draws. Earlier this forum used to give good predictions, but now seems to be inactive
So, between the last two draws, 5910 new people joined the pool having score above 451.Out of these, 567 were 600 +, hence, 5910-567=5343 were between 451-600.
Out of 3400 ITA's issued, (3400-567)=2833 were the people above 473.
2833/19days = 149 people per day joined the pool.
If we assume normal distribution between the scores 473-(481-600) , we had around 17 people added per score per day.
If the same trend continues, and lets suppose the number of pnp's increases to 900(highly unlikely).
3400-900= 2500
17people*14days = 238 people per score
also, because of the tie-breaker rule, we still have around 187 people on 473
so the next draw on Jan 22, cut-off will be
471-472
-900 (601-1200)
-238 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-238 (of 480 newly added score)
-238 (of 479 newly added score)
-238 (of 478 newly added score)
-238 (of 477 newly added score)
-238 (of 476 newly added score)
-238 (of 475 newly added score)
-238 (of 474 newly added score)
-238+187 (of 473 newly added score)
-238 (of 472 newly added score)
-238 (of 471 newly added score)
-238 (of 470 newly added score)
In case of lesser pnp's, which is quite expected, can be as lower as 470.
Please feel free to correct me.
To be honest, it is going to be the same if the draw is regular for 2 weeks, and then will only rise after mid feb
If a back to back draw occurs, that we all are praying for it might go down to 468-469, but it is going to come back to the range of 472-473.
The main reason for this is the influx has now increased the outflux, that means more people above 471 are now joining the pool than withdrawn in each draw so it is going to be constant after feb.