Ray of Hope - 132nd Draw

[indpnv]

#Fact - With the way CRS scores are trending and considering the annual immigration targets, in the coming years there will be a flood of international students in Canada, who have lived in Canada, studied in Canada, worked in Canada and yet can not find a way to become PR. There are more than 500,000 international students in Canada and the numbers are increasing.
In that situation people applying for PR from outside Canada may ONLY have a very limited PNP option.

An FSW single applicant of age 29 and below with 3 years of work experience, Masters degree, no siblings in Canada and CLB9 will score 469.
Make that IELTS CLB10, the scores shoot to 481.

So a person who has Canadian education /work experience will certain have an advantage of additional points, which will compensate even if they do not score CLB9 or 10.
Not to mention that PNPs will always give advantage to people who have lived, worked, studied in their province.

The point in my mundane post?

If the trends are to be believed, it oddly looks like closed doors for CRS below 450 in EE
Scores between 451-460 may see a freak draw or 2 that are back to back and therefore help in clearing some of those profiles stuck in that range.

460-470 have a very nervous, nail biting wait from draw to draw, which again will be helped with back to back draw.

-----------------

If the numbers are to be believed, the suggestion would be to actively look and exhaust every PNP option possible. RNIP is just beginning to take shape, keep a sharp eye on it to see how that process trends.

If studying in Canada is an option, explore it.

If French, seems possible, make it happen.

If you are stuck for few points with CLB9, work on getting CLB10.

Always be on a lookout for a job offer. As difficult and out of reach it may seem, people do get it.

If you are single, maybe it's time to get active in the Canadian matrimony market and you may find your soulmate here.

--------------------

As dismissive this post may sound, it's all real.
And don't blame me, it's my Happy Wedding Anniversary today, what else did you expect.

Edit: LOL guys, the post was hardly to draw attention to my anniversary, but on how frightful EE looks, just like my married life.

#foreverhopeful

Can you at least give credit to the source instead of directly copying the whole thing? I know this is from that FB group.

 

[aikay]

Currently at 465 and clb 10 will push it to 471. Concern is hefty IELTS money that is really a challenge to arrange. What should I do? Shall I borrow from someone or wait at 465.

If you don’t have money , and you are not at risk of loosing 5points soon .. then you can just exercise little patience , I think B2B can bring it to 465

 

[CG7]

Guys, my score is 468 and my work Visa is expiring in may 2020. So should I wait until January or should I go for ielts again??

Don't wait. Go for ielts. Prepare for it. That was my mistake. I waited.

 

[Zara-sh]

Guys, my score is 468 and my work Visa is expiring in may 2020. So should I wait until January or should I go for ielts again??

Your score is good . If you can afford the time and money for IELTS , why not ! But 468 is a decent score

 

[sagar0321]

Currently at 465 and clb 10 will push it to 471. Concern is hefty IELTS money that is really a challenge to arrange. What should I do? Shall I borrow from someone or wait at 465.

I too have the same score 465 and no fear of loosing 5 points, so i will be waiting till this year end because these draws are very unpredictable and anything can happen. However, if the cut off does not drop to 465 till the last draw of 2019 then I would definitely take the ielts again in early January.

 

[EricD]

Just updated another way to calculate the cutoff with a prediction of cutoff time as well:
(assuming even "time stamp distribution" of profile on each score band / two months processing time before PNP comes into pool)
As we know, in 129th draw:
Draw Size : 3900
PNP : 1,527.83 (estimated using the inflow rate between 10/11/2019 ---10/25/2019; which is 1255/23*28 )
Score Bands excluding PNP: 8 (from 475-481, plus 481+ as another band)
Profiles per score : 296.52 [(3900-1527.83) / 8)]
[my previous assumption of "even distribution of 451-481" seems to be wrong, with some underestimation of 470+, thus is the aforementioned update]
If the next draw is on Nov-13:
Days 14.00
Inflow rate (means profile added per day) of 600+ (PNP) 83.29 [considering more PNPs drawn in Sep]
Inflow rate (>= 475) 84.72
Inflow rate per score band (464-475) 10.59
Profiles of 600+ 1,166.00
Previous Draw date 10/30/2019
Previous Cutoff date 8/29/2019
Profiles left at the cutoff score band itself 50.37
Profiles of >= 475 1,236.46
Profiles per score band (464-475) 444.78
Draw Size 3,900.00
Profiles left to clear below the previous cutoff 1,497.54
Score bands to clear 3.37
Previous cutoff 475.00
Real Current Round Cutoff 471.63
Current Round Cutoff (Round down) 471
Cutoff Date 7/2/2019

If the next draw is on Nov-06:
Days 7.00
Inflow rate of 600+ (PNP) 73.29
Inflow rate (>= 475) 84.72
Inflow rate per score band (464-475) 10.59
Profiles of 600+ 513.00
Previous Draw date 10/30/2019
Previous Cutoff date 8/29/2019
Profiles left at the cutoff score band 50.37
Profiles of >= 475 643.41
Profiles per score band (464-475) 370.65
Draw Size 3,900.00
Profiles left to clear below the previous cutoff 2,743.59
Score bands to clear 7.40
Previous cutoff 475.00
Real Current Round Cutoff 467.60
Current Round Cutoff (Round down) 467
Cutoff Date 6/12/2019

Busy preparing post-ITA paperworks so I'm late for this round...Below is my prediction for next round using the same method:
If the next draw is on Dec-11: 470.53
If the next draw is on Dec-04: 467.93
Please note that my method tends to be a conservative one.
As many members here already predicted, I also expect a B2B draw happening in Dec, which will reduce the score to about 467 or so.
PS: A good news about 131st draw is that PNP has slowed down (not like in Nov), though I adjusted the PNP inflow in my calculation to a level that equals Nov in order to provide a relatively conservative prediction.

 

[Dheana90]

I know its too early to ask but what is your prediction about january's 1st draw, given a possible 3 weeks gap after december's last draw.

Hi dear @Ramsha Bukhari ,

I believe December gonna have 2 draws. On the 11th and 18th.

Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw and 18th Draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =13,212(15,818-2,606)
441-450= 9,220

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 13,212 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467score = 346 (386+88-128)
465-466=474(386+88)people/score
451-464= 960(872+88)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,557(13,212+1,365(195x7d))
441-450= 9,241(9,220+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-346 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-474 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-474 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 465 newly added score)
-564 (of 960 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)

After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,951(14,557-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,951 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 396 (960-564)
451-463= 1,004(960+44)people/score


So, by 1st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x14days)
451-600=14,681(11,951+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,283(9,241+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-396 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-626 (of 1,004 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).

 

[Ramsha Bukhari]

Hi dear @Ramsha Bukhari ,

I believe December gonna have 2 draws. On the 11th and 18th.

Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw and 18th Draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =13,212(15,818-2,606)
441-450= 9,220

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 13,212 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467score = 346 (386+88-128)
465-466=474(386+88)people/score
451-464= 960(872+88)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,557(13,212+1,365(195x7d))
441-450= 9,241(9,220+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-346 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-474 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-474 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 465 newly added score)
-564 (of 960 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)

After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,951(14,557-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,951 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 396 (960-564)
451-463= 1,004(960+44)people/score


So, by 1st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x14days)
451-600=14,681(11,951+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,283(9,241+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-396 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-626 (of 1,004 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).

Thankyou so much for all this effort.So nice of you.I will atleast be in peace until my WES comes in

 

[Dheana90]

Thankyou so much for all this effort.So nice of you.I will atleast be in peace until my WES comes in

No worries. All the best for the next draw

 

[Lazybug]

Hi dear @Ramsha Bukhari ,

I believe December gonna have 2 draws. On the 11th and 18th.

Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw and 18th Draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =13,212(15,818-2,606)
441-450= 9,220

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 13,212 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467score = 346 (386+88-128)
465-466=474(386+88)people/score
451-464= 960(872+88)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,557(13,212+1,365(195x7d))
441-450= 9,241(9,220+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-346 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-474 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-474 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 465 newly added score)
-564 (of 960 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)

After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,951(14,557-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,951 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 396 (960-564)
451-463= 1,004(960+44)people/score


So, by 1st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x14days)
451-600=14,681(11,951+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,283(9,241+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-396 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-626 (of 1,004 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).

Your calculations and predictions have been spot on till now so thank you!
I hope these come to pass as it would mean good news for me. So lets hope for the best and that CIC doesn't surprise us anymore.

 

[Dheana90]

Below is my calculation estimation if the draws for December take place on 4th Dec and 18th Dec and also Jan 3rd:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 4th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,453(13,088+1,365(195x7d)
441-450= 9,199(9,178+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 27th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-497(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-386 of 466 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-320 (of 386 of 465 left after 27th Nov draw)



After 4th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 465, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -497)
451-600 =11,350(14,453-3,103)
441-450= 9,199

Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 11,350 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only.

465score = 110 (386-320+44)
451-464= 916(872+44)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,080(11,350+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,241(9,199+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 4th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-110 (of 465 left after 4th Dec draw)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-916 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-84 (of 88 of 464 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,474(14,080-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,474 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 4 (88-84)
451-463= 1,004(916+88)people/score


So, by 3rd January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,136(71x16days)
451-600=14,594(11,474+3,120(195x16d)
441-450= 9,289(9,241+48(3x16days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,120/31=100profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-1,136(601-1200)
-100 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-100 (of 480 newly added score)
-100 (of 479 newly added score)
-100 (of 478 newly added score)
-100 (of 477 newly added score)
-100 (of 476 newly added score)
-100 (of 475 newly added score)
-100 (of 474 newly added score)
-100 (of 473 newly added score)
-100 (of 472 newly added score)
-100 (of 471 newly added score)
-100 (of 470 newly added score)
-100 (of 469 newly added score)
-100 (of 468 newly added score)
-100 (of 467 newly added score)
-100 (of 466 newly added score)
-100 (of 465 newly added score)
-4 (of 464 left after 18th Dec draw)
-100 of 464 newly added score)
-560 (of 1004 of 463 left after 18th Dec draw).

 

[Dheana90]

Your calculations and predictions have been spot on till now so thank you!
I hope these come to pass as it would mean good news for me. So lets hope for the best and that CIC doesn't surprise us anymore.

Yes,dear...PNP nominations approval seems to slow down as well so I really hope that next draw cut off will be 467 if not lower

 

[hunnysaini]

Hi dear @Ramsha Bukhari ,

I believe December gonna have 2 draws. On the 11th and 18th.

Below is my calculation estimation for 11th Dec draw and 18th Draw:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=15,818(13,088+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,220(9,178+12(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 27th Nov to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 467-469
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-128 (of 386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 467, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =13,212(15,818-2,606)
441-450= 9,220

Note: As cut off was 467, it means that the 13,212 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-467 only.

467score = 346 (386+88-128)
465-466=474(386+88)people/score
451-464= 960(872+88)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,557(13,212+1,365(195x7d))
441-450= 9,241(9,220+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-346 (of 467 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-474 (of 466 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-474 (of 465 left after 11th Dec draw)
-44 (of 465 newly added score)
-564 (of 960 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)

After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,951(14,557-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,951 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 396 (960-564)
451-463= 1,004(960+44)people/score


So, by 1st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x14days)
451-600=14,681(11,951+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,283(9,241+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-396 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-88 (of 464 newly added score)
-626 (of 1,004 of 463 left after 11th Dec draw).

boss man no draw on Jan 1 in canada. it is day off

 

[Simmidas]

boss man no draw on Jan 1 in canada. it is day off

You mean Boss Lady !!!

 

[ramneek9288]

Below is my calculation estimation if the draws for December take place on 4th Dec and 18th Dec and also Jan 1st:

After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 23, 2019:
601-1,200 =709
451-600 =14,915
441-450 =9,166


It means in 10 days from Nov 13th to Nov 23, there where:
601-1,200 = 71 profile/day (709/10days)

451-600 = 195prof/day (14,915-12,962= 1,953/10days)

441-450 = 3prof/day (9,166-9,135= 31/10days).


So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=993(709+284(71x4days)
451-600=15,695(14,915+780(195x4d)
441-450= 9,178(9,166+12(3x4days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,733 (1,953+780)profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,733/31=88profile/score

After 27th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 471, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600-993)
451-600 =13,088(15,695-2,607)
441-450= 9,178

Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 13,088 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only.

471 score = 149 (386-237)
465-470=386(298+88)people/score
451-464= 872(784+88)people/score

So, by 4th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x7days)
451-600=14,453(13,088+1,365(195x7d)
441-450= 9,199(9,178+21(3x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,365 profile from 27th Nov to 4th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,365/31=44profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 465-467
3,600 minus:
-497(601-1200)
-44 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-44 (of 480 newly added score)
-44 (of 479 newly added score)
-44 (of 478 newly added score)
-44 (of 477 newly added score)
-44 (of 476 newly added score)
-44 (of 475 newly added score)
-44 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 473 newly added score)
-44 (of 472 newly added score)
-149(of 471 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 471 newly added score)
-386(of 470 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 470 newly added score)
-386 of 469 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 469 newly added score)
-386 of 468 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 468 newly added score)
-386 of 467 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 467 newly added score)
-386 of 466 left after 27th Nov draw)
-44 (of 466 newly added score)
-320 (of 386 of 465 left after 27th Nov draw)



After 4th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 465, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -497)
451-600 =11,350(14,453-3,103)
441-450= 9,199

Note: As cut off was 465, it means that the 11,350 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-465 only.

465score = 110 (386-320+44)
451-464= 916(872+44)people/score


So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=994(71x14days)
451-600=14,080(11,350+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,241(9,199+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 4th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,730/31=88profile/score


With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-110 (of 465 left after 4th Dec draw)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-916 of 464 left after 11th Dec draw)
-84 (of 88 of 464 newly added score)


After 18th Dec draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -994)
451-600 =11,474(14,080-2,606)
441-450= 9,241

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 11,474 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464score = 4 (88-84)
451-463= 1,004(916+88)people/score


So, by 1st January, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=497(71x14days)
451-600=14,204(11,474+2,730(195x14d)
441-450= 9,283(9,241+42(3x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,730 profile from 18th Dec to 1st Jan, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 2,760/31=88profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,600 minus:
-994(601-1200)
-88 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-88 (of 480 newly added score)
-88 (of 479 newly added score)
-88 (of 478 newly added score)
-88 (of 477 newly added score)
-88 (of 476 newly added score)
-88 (of 475 newly added score)
-88 (of 474 newly added score)
-88 (of 473 newly added score)
-88 (of 472 newly added score)
-88 (of 471 newly added score)
-88 (of 470 newly added score)
-88 (of 469 newly added score)
-88 (of 468 newly added score)
-88 (of 467 newly added score)
-88 (of 466 newly added score)
-88 (of 465 newly added score)
-4 (of 464 left after 18th Dec draw)
-88 of 464 newly added score)
-1004 (of 463 left after 18th Dec draw)
-14(of 88 of 463 newly added score)

Bro at least we are seeing some positivity with your predictions....hope all ur calculations come true