Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[badri.sri139]

Possible Bad news:
I don't want to be a pessimist, but we have to admit that there are lots of people with CRS 471 in the pool. Even in the Internal CRS tracker, you can see more people with CRS 471. If one is below 30 yrs, got 2 or more degrees(I believe most of the masters' holders from India are getting two or more), 3 yrs of experience, single and CLB 9 (I have seen lots of people getting CLB 10 in L,R,S and CLB 9 in W, Either people are not getting CLB 9 or are getting CLB 10 in three modules with CLB 9 in 1), gives a CRS of 471. So I believe the CRS might just go down by a point to 471 in the next draw. In favourable case, it could go down to 470 as well. However, I don't think it will go below 470. For this, we just have to look at past trends.
In every draws after FST(with 4 weeks gap), the CRS has increased by 10 to 15 points, but after that, the score came down again at the same level as it was before FST draws. i.e decrease in 8 to 10 points and after that a decrease in 3 and 2 points were observed. However, the last draw score decreased by a mere 3 points (where it should have decreased by 10 minimum 5 points - looking at the past trends). So we cannot expect the draw after that to decrease by 3 points as well. (I will be really happy to be declared wrong by tomorrow's draw).

We also need to take into consideration the number of PNP applicant's. There were a large number of NOI's issued on June/July/August and these are being converted into nomination in November and December, and hence higher number of candidates with CRS 600 and above. So if this continues, meaning, if there are around 1200 to 1500 candidates with CRS 600 and above, that means only 2100 ITA's will be issued to people with CRS 460 to 600. It is quite apparent that around 4000 to 4200 candidates with CRS 450 to 600 are entering into the pool and only 2100 are being issued ITA. This means only back to back draws can clear out the pool.

Possible Good News:
There is a high probability that 3 draws are expected with a back to back on Dec 18, if this is the case then back to back has the capacity to decrease the CRS by at least 5 points. So we can expect the scores to go down to 462-463 by the end of the year.
Also, we cannot deny the possibility of having 4 more draws (27th Nov, Dec 4, Dec 11 and Dec 18), if this is the case the CRS could go down to 455. (let's pray for this to happen)

Takeaway:
Guys, we need to be prepared to deal with the possible bad news and be hopeful for the good news. I know the feeling when we have high hopes but things don't turn the way we expected it to be. So, guys, let's keep the realistic hope and do whatever it takes to make to Canada. What I found the most effective way is to not think about it at all. These things are outside our control so we cannot do anything about the number of candidates, draw size etc. What we can do is, just give yourself a break from CRS and stuff, focus on the stuff you can do to increase your CRS. Don't let Express entry be a reason for anxiety.

Great cautious prediction, but I would like to point out if your possible bad news prediction becomes true (Nov 27 cutoff being 471), then I am afraid the score would not go below 469-468 even in case of a b2b draw because there will be more people added meanwhile and it would be difficult to clear the backlog. If there is no b2b draw then the year will end at 470 crs and the next year will start from that score and continue to increase there on. This seems to be a worrying scenario.

 

[yg96]

I have 3 previous employers. One of the employers provided the work exp. with all needed details except Salary. That employer has policy not to disclose that on work exp letter. I have e-mail from them, can I use that on LOE?
Not having salary info. on one of the work exp. letters will make some issues? The work exp. letters from other employers look good.

dont u have pay slips dont forget to attach them as it will use it as a proof too and explain in detailing in LOE

 

[GG12345]

dont u have pay slips dont forget to attach them as it will use it as a proof too and explain in detailing in LOE

Yup, I have payslips and will upload those. I read some people saying on previous threads that reference/work letter must have all the details ( supporting documents can lead to ADR).

 

[Rkd@321]

Great cautious prediction, but I would like to point out if your possible bad news prediction becomes true (Nov 27 cutoff being 471), then I am afraid the score would not go below 469-468 even in case of a b2b draw because there will be more people added meanwhile and it would be difficult to clear the backlog. If there is no b2b draw then the year will end at 470 crs and the next year will start from that score and continue to increase there on. This seems to be a worrying scenario.

Highly unlikely. The density of the candidates above 465 in and entering the pool are very less compared to that between 450-465. So if a b2b draw happens then it will certainly bring the CRS to around 464/465 before the year ends.

 

[robin6869]

Highly unlikely. The density of the candidates above 465 in and entering the pool are very less compared to that between 450-465. So if a b2b draw happens then it will certainly bring the CRS to around 464/465 before the year ends.

and their target is 20K higher for 2020 and 2021, Lets assume that 10 K more for each year then we can strongly hope 3500-3600 ITA per draw. In that case score should keep coming down till May. But every third lawyer in Canada saying changes will come in 2020, So lets see what are they cooking. I think they have bigger target so should have plan that is good for all of us.

 

[lightspeed97]

Possible Bad news:
I don't want to be a pessimist, but we have to admit that there are lots of people with CRS 471 in the pool. Even in the Internal CRS tracker, you can see more people with CRS 471. If one is below 30 yrs, got 2 or more degrees(I believe most of the masters' holders from India are getting two or more), 3 yrs of experience, single and CLB 9 (I have seen lots of people getting CLB 10 in L,R,S and CLB 9 in W, Either people are not getting CLB 9 or are getting CLB 10 in three modules with CLB 9 in 1), gives a CRS of 471. So I believe the CRS might just go down by a point to 471 in the next draw. In favourable case, it could go down to 470 as well. However, I don't think it will go below 470. For this, we just have to look at past trends.
In every draws after FST(with 4 weeks gap), the CRS has increased by 10 to 15 points, but after that, the score came down again at the same level as it was before FST draws. i.e decrease in 8 to 10 points and after that a decrease in 3 and 2 points were observed. However, the last draw score decreased by a mere 3 points (where it should have decreased by 10 minimum 5 points - looking at the past trends). So we cannot expect the draw after that to decrease by 3 points as well. (I will be really happy to be declared wrong by tomorrow's draw).

We also need to take into consideration the number of PNP applicant's. There were a large number of NOI's issued on June/July/August and these are being converted into nomination in November and December, and hence higher number of candidates with CRS 600 and above. So if this continues, meaning, if there are around 1200 to 1500 candidates with CRS 600 and above, that means only 2100 ITA's will be issued to people with CRS 460 to 600. It is quite apparent that around 4000 to 4200 candidates with CRS 450 to 600 are entering into the pool and only 2100 are being issued ITA. This means only back to back draws can clear out the pool.

Possible Good News:
There is a high probability that 3 draws are expected with a back to back on Dec 18, if this is the case then back to back has the capacity to decrease the CRS by at least 5 points. So we can expect the scores to go down to 462-463 by the end of the year.
Also, we cannot deny the possibility of having 4 more draws (27th Nov, Dec 4, Dec 11 and Dec 18), if this is the case the CRS could go down to 455. (let's pray for this to happen)

Takeaway:
Guys, we need to be prepared to deal with the possible bad news and be hopeful for the good news. I know the feeling when we have high hopes but things don't turn the way we expected it to be. So, guys, let's keep the realistic hope and do whatever it takes to make to Canada. What I found the most effective way is to not think about it at all. These things are outside our control so we cannot do anything about the number of candidates, draw size etc. What we can do is, just give yourself a break from CRS and stuff, focus on the stuff you can do to increase your CRS. Don't let Express entry be a reason for anxiety.

I disagree with this.. Looking at the internal tracker even there are only like 20 people out of almost 340 that are 471+

As at now the amount of people 470 and above in the pool is very very small compared to other distributions... Being single + masters + 3years experience + MAxd IELTS + POF is not an easy combination to come by

 

[leblord]

some one know based on previous draw what are the fluctuation of time for the draw tomorow , i know last one was at 7 pm gmt

 

[robin6869]

CanPR application is predicting 465-470, I think they also agree that density is not much around 470s. 467-468 would be a great relief.

 

[badri.sri139]

My logic suggests crs will be 470 tomorrow, but my skeptical/pessimistic side suggests it will be 471.

 

[Lazybug]

All these predictions are making me a bit excited, recently sitting at 467! I know the chances are slim tomorrow but its absolutely wonderful to be feeling hopeful again.

 

[badri.sri139]

CanPR application is predicting 465-470, I think they also agree that density is not much around 470s. 467-468 would be a great relief.

The CanPR app is not very accurate. They give a broad range and even that can be inaccurate

 

[Ravneet09]

Crs will be 466+-1 for sure....By the going trends there will be total of 3 draws in this year including this...This year it will finish like 462+-1...Best of luck to everyone.

 

[leblord]

My logic suggests crs will be 470 tomorrow, but my skeptical/pessimistic side suggests it will be 471.

no you are too pessimist i think logical is 469 hype is 468 skeptical 470

 

[SR_T]

Considering the fact that the last CRS cutoff score was 3 marks below it's previous cutoff score, I believe tomorrow's cutoff will be 469(+-)1.

 

[Rkd@321]

Why did the draw take place very late on Nov 13th? Was there any specific reason?