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Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

cas009

Newbie
Sep 13, 2019
9
7
Is there a possibility for 462 before December (after which my score will decrease to 456)? If not, might as well submit my IELTS for EOR, hoping I will get CLB 10 from CLB 9 for writing (7.0 to 7.5). I only have until this week to request EOR. I already took another exam but I did worse unfortunately. Hope someone can advise me.
 
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robin6869

Hero Member
Jul 31, 2017
278
252
Under these conditions LMIA is not required. Applicants like the person who is on intra company LMIA exempt work permit will be eligible provided they have worked for a year already and get a job offer for 1 year after that please refer below

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/documents/offer-employment/lmia-exempt.html

I saw the link but still its confusing, is it saying, one can get 50 points of LMIA just with employment letter from company, if he/she has already done 1 year for the employer in Canada.
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,163
Canada
Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:

By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))


Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)

441-450= 9,023


Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.

So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)

441-450= 9,163


Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.

Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.

So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)

Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.
@Angel1113 and @Dheana90 Great Job done guys, and be consistent in setting yourself as an example to others.

True examples of focus and dedication towards their roles, keep going with your good work!!
 

hypervariate123

Hero Member
Aug 13, 2019
309
214
Lol no one is safe at this point, but why aren't we worried it will jump astronomically if the next draw was in 30 October? I've read that it jumped 20 points in May when this similar situation happened, from 450 to 470! and last draw we had, score was 464! So why are we assuming it will be around 470? and not way higher?
Because anything above that is just way too high to be reasonable. People still enter the pool at high 460s, 470s.
I think it will still go only mid-high 470s, and then hipefully drop down to reasonable levels.
 

thatguy1

Star Member
Jul 23, 2019
92
76
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 16, 2019 11:15 am UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 15): | veritas1994: 1049 | yemjim: 1045 | Dingusitis: 476 | stepass: 474 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | EricD: 471 | mudjawd: 468 | Ca_karan: 464 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461|
  • 455-460 (Total 74) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 61) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |
  • 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |
If any FST candidate in the list recieved ITA please let me know. Thanks!
Please update my score to 1054. Thanks,
 
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hypervariate123

Hero Member
Aug 13, 2019
309
214
Yes, it indeed will in some or the other way. Liberals have bolstered immigration system with liberalised regulations since 2015, on the contrary, conservatives have always been vocal about systematic immigration rather than huge surge of unnecessary number of immigrations, which means they will prioritise PNP’s more than FSW draws. Liberals had no cap on how many number of immigrants they plan to call each year, which you can see from 2017-18, and conservatives are against it.
That's not true at all.

Conservatives fully support economic immigration - which is what we are doing. We are all planning to be tax paying members, who will find jobs or bring money into Canada. This is what they want. I doubt that elections will have any impact on EE.
 

Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
Because anything above that is just way too high to be reasonable. People still enter the pool at high 460s, 470s.
I think it will still go only mid-high 470s, and then hipefully drop down to reasonable levels.
Don’t worry , there I’ll be a draw next week either on Monday or Wednesday . We should not compare this situation with what happened in may . As in may , there were only around 1600 people at the score range of 451-600 a few days before FST draw , hence the next draw was after 2 weeks . However , the situation is completely different now
 

Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
That's not true at all.

Conservatives fully support economic immigration - which is what we are doing. We are all planning to be tax paying members, who will find jobs or bring money into Canada. This is what they want. I doubt that elections will have any impact on EE.
There will no impact on EE at all
 
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Ilyushin76

Hero Member
Mar 24, 2019
485
190
Don’t worry , there I’ll be a draw next week either on Monday or Wednesday . We should not compare this situation with what happened in may . As in may , there were only around 1600 people at the score range of 451-600 a few days before FST draw , hence the next draw was after 2 weeks . However , the situation is completely different now
Or they could just do what they did last time and the CRS sky rockets to 480 :(
 

mrs.Saifee

Star Member
Dec 13, 2018
142
43
Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:

By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))


Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)

441-450= 9,023


Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.

So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)

441-450= 9,163


Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.

Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.

So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))


Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)

Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.
your analysis is quite scary this means the score will not fall below 465 this year
 

Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
Or they could just do what they did last time and the CRS sky rockets to 480 :(
U r not considering all the facts
1. CRS cnt be this higher , as CRS is not a random number , not many people have 475-480 , unless u have Canadian study or pnp

2. Most people have 451-460 ( around 6000 )

Draw is declared according to the CRS points of people

As per my observation , of a draw happens next week , the cut off would be 467-469

if on 30th , cut off 469-473
 
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Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
U r not considering all the facts
1. CRS cnt be this higher , as CRS is not a random number , not many people have 475-480 , unless u have Canadian study or pnp

2. Most people have 451-460 ( around 6000 )

Draw is declared according to the CRS points of people

As per my observation , of a draw happens next week , the cut off would be 467-469

if on 30th , cut off 469-473
It will come down to 462-464 in November , considering the number of people , but dnt forget that most people are in 451-462 slab . I have 469 , let’s hope for the best
 
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Mandeep1989

Hero Member
Oct 23, 2017
639
148
your analysis is quite scary this means the score will not fall below 465 this year
Don’t assume that these many profile I’ll continue to be added per day , as there will be a drop . One more thing , many people got clb9 in September - more than ever before according to ielts institutes and experts . This could be the reason as well
 

gabriel900

Full Member
Oct 16, 2019
44
34
Don’t worry , there I’ll be a draw next week either on Monday or Wednesday . We should not compare this situation with what happened in may . As in may , there were only around 1600 people at the score range of 451-600 a few days before FST draw , hence the next draw was after 2 weeks . However , the situation is completely different now
I love your optimism, any reason you are so sure of a draw happening next week? :)