Hi dear, below is my calculation after 30th Oct draw:
By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))
Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)
After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 471, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =13,290(15,598-2,308)
441-450= 9,023
Note: As cut off was 471, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-471 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-471 score range. Thus, it makes 13,290/21= 633 profiles per score.
So, by 13th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,686(13,290+4,396(314x14d)
441-450= 9,163(9,023+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 4,396 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 4396/26=169profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 469
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-169 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-169 (of 475 newly added score)
-169 (of 474 newly added score)
-169 (of 473 newly added score)
-169 (of 472 newly added score)
-633 (of 471 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 471 newly added score)
-633 (of 470 left from 30th Oct draw)
-169 (of 470 newly added score)
-633 (of 469 left from 30th Oct draw)
-20 (169 of 469 newly added score)
After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 469, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900-798)
451-600 =14,584(17,686-3,102)
441-450= 9,163
Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only. Let's assume that 13,290 are distributed equally to 451-469 score range. Thus, it makes 14,584/19= 767 profiles per score.
Let's assume that after 13th Nov draw,the influx of candidates in the range of 451-600 will be decrease to 200 profile per day.
So, by 27th Nov, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=798(57x14days)
451-600=17,384(14,584+2,800(200x14d)
441-450= 9,303(9,163+140(10x14days))
Suppose that from the newly added 2,800 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600). Thus,it will make 2800/26=108profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 467
3,900 minus:
-798(601-1200)
-108 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-108 (of 475 newly added score)
-108 (of 474 newly added score)
-108 (of 473 newly added score)
-108 (of 472 newly added score)
-108 (of 471 newly added score)
-108 (of 470 newly added score)
-767 (of 469 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 469 newly added score)
-767 (of 468 left from 13th Nov draw)
-108 (of 468 newly added score)
-596 (of 467 left from 13th Nov draw)
Let's say that after 30th October draw, the CRS cut off score keeps on decreasing by 2 points. Thefore, the cut off should reach 460 on 1st Jan or 15th Jan 2020.