Ray of Hope - 125th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
rajapanesar
Champion Member
- Jan 31, 2019
- 562
- 36
- Category........
- FSW
- NOC Code......
- 1241
- App. Filed.......
- 19/09/2019
I'm stating 455 as much of the mass is already cleared. But still, how can one predict what CIC has in their minds.
But then expect a steady rise in 600+ candidates owing to earlier OINP tech draws. 455 would be at the more optimistic end while the shorter end of stick would land us at 457 itself. I hope it doesn't rise.
rajapanesar
Champion Member
- Jan 31, 2019
- 562
- 36
- Category........
- FSW
- NOC Code......
- 1241
- App. Filed.......
- 19/09/2019
I’ve just checked immitracker for OINP case status and apparently, just as what I thought, almost none of the July 12 OINP NOIs has got the nomination yet, but many of them are already in DIP stage for 2 weeks or more, which means these nominations will likely be granted in the coming 2 weeks.
I would suggest people who are not in the pool yet please get in the pool ASAP before next draw. Or if you have a chance to improve your score to 455+ please try as hard as you can to achieve it before the next draw. It seems a draw on Sep 4 will continue to witness a drop in cut-off, before the influx of massive PNP nominations entering the pool.
If there is a draw on Sep 4th, possibly most July 12 OINP NOIs still haven’t got their 600 additional points by then, then you have a real chance as the cut-off should continue to decrease for a couple of points.
However if next draw is 3 weeks later (let’s hope this doesn’t happen, finger crossed) then the earliest batch of July OINP NOIs will have received their 600 points and there will be some impact upon the cut-off. And there will be more PNPs coming into the pool to dominate the 1000+ CRS section throughout Sep and early Oct. (Remember there are 3300+ of OINP NOIs in July 12 and Aug 1 tech draws.)
The Aug 15 OINP NOI, however, has no significant reason to be worried about, as among the 997 NOI receivers, almost all of the 455-465 will likely not accept the NOI (checked immitracker and confirmed my guess). In fact, we might even see the bright side of this - as ON has wasted hundreds of NOI, we could expect another round of OINP NOIs in the near future.
So everyone the upcoming Sep and Oct will continue to be a roller coaster ride for us yet full of hopes and surprises.
#Stay positive and fight on!!!
I would suggest people who are not in the pool yet please get in the pool ASAP before next draw. Or if you have a chance to improve your score to 455+ please try as hard as you can to achieve it before the next draw. It seems a draw on Sep 4 will continue to witness a drop in cut-off, before the influx of massive PNP nominations entering the pool.
If there is a draw on Sep 4th, possibly most July 12 OINP NOIs still haven’t got their 600 additional points by then, then you have a real chance as the cut-off should continue to decrease for a couple of points.
However if next draw is 3 weeks later (let’s hope this doesn’t happen, finger crossed) then the earliest batch of July OINP NOIs will have received their 600 points and there will be some impact upon the cut-off. And there will be more PNPs coming into the pool to dominate the 1000+ CRS section throughout Sep and early Oct. (Remember there are 3300+ of OINP NOIs in July 12 and Aug 1 tech draws.)
The Aug 15 OINP NOI, however, has no significant reason to be worried about, as among the 997 NOI receivers, almost all of the 455-465 will likely not accept the NOI (checked immitracker and confirmed my guess). In fact, we might even see the bright side of this - as ON has wasted hundreds of NOI, we could expect another round of OINP NOIs in the near future.
So everyone the upcoming Sep and Oct will continue to be a roller coaster ride for us yet full of hopes and surprises.
#Stay positive and fight on!!!
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Hi can you please add me at 461. Unfortunately missed yesterday's draw by just a few minutes. Congratulations to everyone who made it and good luck to all of us in the pool at the moment. I too feel that the next draw would be quite favourable and hopefully we all cross the bridge soon.
Around 4000 NoI were sent by Ontario since July 12. Now I believe that though it would have some impact but it won't be as much as to significantly hold the cut off and here's why.
1. Not all of the 4000 notifications will be converted into nominations. The wastage should be around 15-25%.
2. The number of applicants claiming 600 additional points would then rise only gradually in the next draws and will be spaced out.
3. And then this slow influx will be counter balanced to some extent by the rise in number of invitations (which are expected to rise to 3900 in the next or next to the next draw).
4. Many of the applicants who had accepted OINP themselves were in 455+ range. So, that should add or take away nothing from the pool as regards to any draw above 455.
Keeping all that in mind, the picture doesn't seem as bad. Sure candidates with 600+ score will be expected to rise, but not as much as to significantly impact the system.
But yea, I do agree with you. Those who can increase their CRS to 455+ shouldn't take risks.
I applied for ITA with my passport expiring on 14 of December. I have already applied for a renewal and waiting for it.
Can I fill the PR application with my current passport and update when I get the new one.
Can I fill the PR application with my current passport and update when I get the new one.
WOW back to back draw!! This is amazing!!
Congrats to all who made it
Congrats to all who made it
Guys anyone facing issue with MBA not being considered as masters? mine is considered two degrees and score down to 449 which makes it super tough to get through now...
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@Milanarora , @Not_Your_Donkey_Kong and others
Hey guys,
As we always expected a much needed B2B draw to be conduted and finally it took place yesterday. Particularly, this draw has restored the rays of hope among the below 450 range applicants to a great extent!
Now, If the consistency of bi-weekly draws is maintained then the cut-off can drop further. Here, I would like to share my predictions considering both Best as well as Worst scenarios.!
My Predictions for the Upcoming Draw (September 4)
Case 1: Best Scenario
(with only FEW "PNP" applicants)
454-455 with 3600 ITAs
452-454 with 3900 ITAs
Case 2: Worst Scenario
(with MORE "PNP" applicants)
456-457 with 3600 ITAs
454-455 with 3900 ITAs
Well, As per my understanding, the July 12th NOI batch (1653 NOIs) is already close to the nominations. So, majority of them (let's say 600-800 pnp applicants) might get approved before the September 4th draw and I'm afraid that as an aftermath it could affect the declining pace of the cut-off extensively!! That's what my assumptions are.
However, I wish with the pile-up of PNP applicants, there would not be much damage into the EE-system. I hope the Case 1 may become the reality and surprise all of us. Good luck everyone!
Remember always "Failure is a fog through which we glimpse the triumph ! "
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@Milanarora , @Not_Your_Donkey_Kong and others
Hey guys,
As we always expected a much needed B2B draw to be conduted and finally it took place yesterday. Particularly, this draw has restored the rays of hope among the below 450 range applicants to a great extent!
Now, If the consistency of bi-weekly draws is maintained then the cut-off can drop further. Here, I would like to share my predictions considering both Best as well as Worst scenarios.!
My Predictions for the Upcoming Draw (September 4)
Case 1:
(with only FEW "PNP" applicants)
454-455 with 3600 ITAs
452-454 with 3900 ITAs
Case 2:
(with MORE "PNP" applicants)
456-457 with 3600 ITAs
454-455 with 3900 ITAs
Well, As per my understanding, the July 12th NOI batch (1653 NOIs) is already close to the nominations. So, majority of them (let's say 600-800 pnp applicants) might get approved before the September 4th draw and I'm afraid as an aftermath it could affect the declining pace of the cut-off extensively!! That's what my assumptions are.
However, I wish with the pile-up of PNP applicants, there would not be much damage into the EE-system. I hope the Case 1 may become the reality and surprise all of us. Good luck everyone!
Remember always "Failure is a fog through which we glimpse the triumph ! "
Mr Niksharma01,thanks bro, your encouragement and support was helpful.thanks and continue your good work in the forum I wish u the best and I know u will get your ITA sooner. Thanks bro