Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[ripul]

Was it 20 days after the test date? Is it due to major difference of bands between 2 modules? Can you please tell me your ielts scores for reference?

Yes, 20 days after the test date. It looks like this reason only. I got 8.5 8.5 8 6.5 score that time.(LRSW)

 

[EnthuChap]

The chances of having a 3900 draw size is very high for the rest of the year. How?



That leaves IRCC with 32,400 ITAs to be issued to meet 2019 target, however historically they have always issued more ITAs than previous years. Even if they only want to issue 88000 which is 1000 under last year, there would be 39000 ITAs left to issue for this year.

Now, we have approximately 10 draws left this year since 20 weeks left.

If IRCC were to meet just the target then they would just do 3300 draw sizes for the rest of the year
If they were to meet the actuals of 2018 then they would have to issue 3900 draw size rest of the year without missing any draws like Aug7 and May gap.
To exceed, they could increase the draw size to new levels like 4000+

Well, if they start issuing 3900 from the next draw, then certainly it will be a start of something positive and will renew everyone's hope, including me ;-) I would even go on to say that they will fit in atleast 1 B2B draw in between and would try and surpass last year's 89K ITAs.

Now, I and others have said many things positive to come and CIC has proven it wrong. Hopefully, they will hear you. Cheers

 

[meiqian]

like most of you, i am in the pool, but only got 450 and there is no space for me to improve

given there is no draw this week, i really got a bad feeling

looks like the points will remain high for the rest of the year, they really want to keep points at least above 450 as we all can tell from FST only draws easier this year

there won't be any b2b draws coz there is no point skip the draw right now and then conduct draws for consecutive two weeks, logically, it doesn't make sense at all.

they are very cautious this year as you can tell they slightly increase the size to 3600, which is not as aggressive as last year

guys, dont forget the federal ELECTION is coming in October and Conservative is ahead.. the situation doesn't look good... if you doubt the impact of election on immigration policy, have a look on what just happened

i dont hope i can get ITA from Canada coz all of sudden it's just winds of change

sorry, i dont want to being negative

we all hope for the best, and prepare for the worst

good luck guys

 

[Kenneth89]

Well as for me ,I think I will have to go upgrade my score to 470 from 458, by applying for spouse ECA and also for my spouse to go for another IELTS. I hope for reduction on CRS anyway but I don't want to die young by hoping on that!

 

[NikSharma01]

Let's just hope the accumulation of 461+ scorer will be much less,dear...Don't wanna imagine another disaster in cut off score.

Exactly! Let's hope for the good to happen. I wish CIC may either increase the ITAs or conduct B2B draws on 14th and 21st of this month respectively.

The chances of having a 3900 draw size is very high for the rest of the year. How?



That leaves IRCC with 32,400 ITAs to be issued to meet 2019 target, however historically they have always issued more ITAs than previous years. Even if they only want to issue 88000 which is 1000 under last year, there would be 39000 ITAs left to issue for this year.

Now, we have approximately 10 draws left this year since 20 weeks left.

If IRCC were to meet just the target then they would just do 3300 draw sizes for the rest of the year
If they were to meet the actuals of 2018 then they would have to issue 3900 draw size rest of the year without missing any draws like Aug7 and May gap.
To exceed, they could increase the draw size to new levels like 4000+

The given target reflects the number of people "to be migrated" not "to be invited".

There is a great difference between these two. You can't say all of the ITAs will be accepted, there is always a declining rate! Which points out the need of increasing the number of ITAs.

So, if CIC will continue issuing the same number of ITAs for the remaining 10 consecutive draws till the end of this year, it will stay behind its yearly target of 2019. So, it has to enhance the ITA figure at any condition!

CIC's target for 2019 is 81400-86000 (if I'm not mistaken!)

Case 1 :-

Taking the least 81,400!
81,400-49,000=32,400

We're assuming remaining draws to be 10.
So, it means 3240 ITAs to be issued till the end. With the help of which CIC will never meet with this year's target.

Case 2:-

Taking the atmost 86000!
86,000-49,000=37,000

That means if CIC will issue 3700 ITAs in each draw, it will meet the yearly target, only if there won't by any declined ITAs. Which is highly unlikely!!

So, CIC will surely increase the ITA numbers and this trend of high CRS will soon be ended.
Hence, proved!

 

[Philips49]

It is not over until it is over. Let’s see what happens.

like most of you, i am in the pool, but only got 450 and there is no space for me to improve

given there is no draw this week, i really got a bad feeling

looks like the points will remain high for the rest of the year, they really want to keep points at least above 450 as we all can tell from FST only draws easier this year

there won't be any b2b draws coz there is no point skip the draw right now and then conduct draws for consecutive two weeks, logically, it doesn't make sense at all.

they are very cautious this year as you can tell they slightly increase the size to 3600, which is not as aggressive as last year

guys, dont forget the federal ELECTION is coming in October and Conservative is ahead.. the situation doesn't look good... if you doubt the impact of election on immigration policy, have a look on what just happened

i dont hope i can get ITA from Canada coz all of sudden it's just winds of change

sorry, i dont want to being negative

we all hope for the best, and prepare for the worst

good luck guys

 

[Aditya97]

Hi guys,

Me and my wife are chartered accountants. We both have 5 yrs of work experience. I am in banking and she is in audit. As per cic calculator we are expecting our points to be 460. I request you guys to help me understand following questions for Express entry program :-

1.How much time does it take to get an ITA under express entry with CRS score of 460+.
2.How many rounds of express entry are there in a year and its frequency (monthly, quarterly etc).
3. How is the job market for chartered accountants? I am in banking and my wife is in Audit with around 5 years of work experience each.
4. What is the government plan for intake of migrants for coming years tentatively in numbers (same, increasing or decreasing) ? Will they continue to offer same no of invitations or will it drop post the election in October?

Any other precaution I should take before applying?


Regards
Aditya

 

[Midnight Blessing]

like most of you, i am in the pool, but only got 450 and there is no space for me to improve

given there is no draw this week, i really got a bad feeling

looks like the points will remain high for the rest of the year, they really want to keep points at least above 450 as we all can tell from FST only draws easier this year

there won't be any b2b draws coz there is no point skip the draw right now and then conduct draws for consecutive two weeks, logically, it doesn't make sense at all.

they are very cautious this year as you can tell they slightly increase the size to 3600, which is not as aggressive as last year

guys, dont forget the federal ELECTION is coming in October and Conservative is ahead.. the situation doesn't look good... if you doubt the impact of election on immigration policy, have a look on what just happened

i dont hope i can get ITA from Canada coz all of sudden it's just winds of change

sorry, i dont want to being negative

we all hope for the best, and prepare for the worst

good luck guys

Every speculation here and around is just a beating around the Bush cause we absolutely don't know what is happening for what reason. In February they had skipped and we saw a 3 week gap draw and in January we saw the only back to back draw. Now there were no reason for them to do this but still it happened.

Dont lose your hope. There is always some way to make things happen. Just take the toughest route in any case.

 

[EnthuChap]

Exactly! Let's hope for the good to happen. I wish CIC may either increase the ITAs or conduct B2B draws on 14th and 21st of this month respectively.


The given target reflects the number of people "to be migrated" not "to be invited".

There is a great difference between these two. You can't say all of the ITAs will be accepted, there is always a declining rate! Which points out the need of increasing the number of ITAs.

So, if CIC will continue issuing the same number of ITAs for the remaining 10 consecutive draws till the end of this year, it will stay behind its yearly target of 2019. So, it has to enhance the ITA figure at any condition!

CIC's target for 2019 is 81400-86000 (if I'm not mistaken!)

Case 1 :-
Taking the least 81,400!
81,400-49,000=32,400

We're assuming remaining draws to be 10.
So, it means 3240 ITAs to be issued till the end. With the help of which CIC will never meet with the target.

Case 2:-
Taking the atmost 86000!
86,000-49,000=37,000

That means if CIC will issue 3700 ITAs in each draw, it will meet the yearly target, only if there won't by any declined ITAs. Which is highly unlikely!!

So, CIC will surely increase the ITA numbers.
Hence, proved!

Absolutely bro! A point will come where the bubble will burst and the cat and mouse game that CIC is playing will come to an end.

 

[Punitsingh]

Absolutely bro! A point will come where the bubble will burst and the cat and mouse game that CIC is playing will come to an end.

Ya cic trends has been a mixture of negative and positive trends and from last few months we have seen only negative trends so probability of something positive is higher now than something negative

 

[EnthuChap]

Ya cic trends has been a mixture of negative and positive trends and from last few months we have seen only negative trends so probability of something positive is higher now than something negative

Yes, they did give an indication of a positive intent with a 3600 draw size only to claw back. However, they too are entering into a point of no return i.e assuming that the will meet their own stated admission targets.

 

[eusouocristian]

Please guys could you help me to understand what does b2b draw means?

 

[DEEP3694]

Please guys could you help me to understand what does b2b draw means?

Back to back

 

[Akshay10]

Need some information here. Please help. Has anyone taken computer based IELTS in Canada College? I see this is the only centre having computer based IELTS in my area. How does this compare to British council? Anyone? Please help.

 

[nikki1992]

Need some information here. Please help. Has anyone taken computer based IELTS in Canada College? I see this is the only centre having computer based IELTS in my area. How does this compare to British council? Anyone? Please help.

Hi Akshay, I have taken CBT IELTS in canada, tried both BC and IDP.