Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[WantToImmigrate]

Hi Everyone,

I'm so delighted to tell you, after being a part of great struggle from the last 6 months, I got my ITA today.

I want to thank each and everyone of you for being a part of this great CRS draw journey so far. Undoubtedly, everyone has unique story in their lives and when they fall down, they come up more stronger next time.

I've seen so many applicants so far who made themselves motivated through out till the time they didn't get the golden ITA ticket. Because they deserved the BEST!

Big salute to those, who're still waiting for their turns and didn't give up. You guys are the best examples for everyone who're striving for the best to happen still. Keep pushing yourself, don't stop, try hard to enhance your scores and don't give a single damn to negative folks. No matter what, never ever give up!

ALWAYS REMEMBER IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL YOU WIN!!

Congratulations man!!!

 

[Letshope]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

Very good explanation Dheana90, i have been following this threads since may and after every draw is completed i wait here for your comment cause you always do this kind of explanations with all the possible details included, keep up the good work, you are really helping our community here by giving detailed comments and predicting the future a little bit lol, it reduces my anxiety ahaha

 

[skg1988]

Hi Everyone,

I'm so delighted to tell you, after being a part of great struggle from the last 6 months, I got my ITA today.

I want to thank each and everyone of you for being a part of this great CRS draw journey so far. Undoubtedly, everyone has unique story in their lives and when they fall down, they come up more stronger next time.

I've seen so many applicants so far who made themselves motivated through out till the time they didn't get the golden ITA ticket. Because they deserved the BEST!

Big salute to those, who're still waiting for their turns and didn't give up. You guys are the best examples for everyone who're striving for the best to happen still. Keep pushing yourself, don't stop, try hard to enhance your scores and don't give a single damn to negative folks. No matter what, never ever give up!

ALWAYS REMEMBER IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL YOU WIN!!

MANY CONGRATULATION MATE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very happy for you

 

[Rajatsharma2304]

Hi Everyone,

I'm so delighted to tell you, after being a part of great struggle from the last 6 months, I got my ITA today.

I want to thank each and everyone of you for being a part of this great CRS draw journey so far. Undoubtedly, everyone has unique story in their lives and when they fall down, they come up more stronger next time.

I've seen so many applicants so far who made themselves motivated through out till the time they didn't get the golden ITA ticket. Because they deserved the BEST!

Big salute to those, who're still waiting for their turns and didn't give up. You guys are the best examples for everyone who're striving for the best to happen still. Keep pushing yourself, don't stop, try hard to enhance your scores and don't give a single damn to negative folks. No matter what, never ever give up!

ALWAYS REMEMBER IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL YOU WIN!!

Many Many Congrats Nitin. Wish you very best !

 

[Punitsingh]

My prediction:
Next cut-off will be either 459 (almost cleared) or 458 (tiebreaker in early or mid May).

Sitting at 458, Aug 21 might be my turn but I’m not gonna sit and wait

Perfect

 

[Khanstan]

I believe the nxt cut off will be 457,

 

[Dheana90]

Very good explanation Dheana90, i have been following this threads since may and after every draw is completed i wait here for your comment cause you always do this kind of explanations with all the possible details included, keep up the good work, you are really helping our community here by giving detailed comments and predicting the future a little bit lol, it reduces my anxiety ahaha

Thank you. I'm glad that you found my post useful.

It reduce my stress level,too hahaha

 

[Angel1113]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

Thank you for your predictions. I really appreciate all the hard work you put into it.

For all the people in this thread- it is ok that you don't agree with someone's calculation or point of view. But please appreciate their intensions of helping others.

 

[13nitinsharma]

@13nitinsharma

Did you get the ITA as a message in your CIC account or was it through your personal email? or both?

I'm checking both my CIC and my Gmail right now.

Both

 

[Dream Come-True]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

Really appreciate the efforts you have taken to guide others. Can't be predicted in a better way.

 

[13nitinsharma]

@13nitinsharma , am at 458 EE profile created on 15 June. Should I wait for the next 2 draws (i.e. Aug 7 and 21) ? (Or) go with the OINP that i received on 12-Jul . I may have to accept the OINP invitation in 45 days (i.e. within 25-Aug)

Can i accept the OINP invitation even one day before it expires?
Please let me know your thoughts please.. totally confused..

Wait for next two draws. You'll be perfectly fine my friend!

 

[Angel1113]

Recent OINP changes
1. The In-Demand Skills Stream offers workers in occupations that have been defined as "low-skilled work" a chance for permanent residence if they have an eligible job offer from a qualified employer and meet certain criteria such as work experience in Canada, high-school degree, and a CLB level of 4 in their English level. Some of the recent changes include:

• New occupations are now eligible for this category including nurse aides and orderlies, home support workers, and truck drivers (other occupations that are still eligible for this stream include farm workers, construction labourers, meat processors, heavy equipment operators, and product installers and servicers).

• The work experience requirement was decreased to 9 months of work experience in Ontario within the same occupation of the eligible job offer.

2. The Human Capital Priorities stream invites certain targeted individuals who are in the Express Entry pool to apply for the OINP and obtain 600 more points.
This stream will now conduct Tech Draws for targeted tech occupations. The current list of occupations consists of: "Software Engineers and Designers" (NOC 2173), "Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers" (NOC 2174), "Computer Engineers" (NOC 2147), "Web Designers and Developers" (NOC 2175), "Database Analysts and Data Administrators" (NOC 2172), and "Computer and Information System Managers" (NOC 0213).
The first Tech Draw occurred on Friday, July 12, 2019, where Notifications of Interest were issued to 1,623 individuals with experience in 1 of the 6 occupations listed above and had CRS scores between 439 and 459.
3. The Entrepreneur stream saw significant changes. These include:

• Individuals opening or buying a business in Ontario can now have a Canadian business partner and still qualify to apply through the Entrepreneur Stream.
  
  
• The minimum investment, net worth, job creation and experience requirements for the Entrepreneur stream were decreased significantly.
  • For businesses within the Greater Toronto Area, an applicant must demonstrate a net worth of $800,000 and an investment of $600,000. The requirement to create 2 permanent full-time positions remains the same.
  • For businesses outside the Greater Toronto Area or in the Information and Communications Technology or Digital Communications sectors, an applicant must demonstrate a net worth of $400,000 and an investment of $200,000. Additionally, the creation of only one permanent full-time position is required.
  • The experience requirement has been decreased from 36 to 24 months.

• The EOI system was overhauled to place special emphasis on the viability and desirability of the business plan and concept.

 

[Dheana90]

Really appreciate the efforts you have taken to guide others. Can't be predicted in a better way.

Thank you. I'm glad you like my estimation calculation, hahaha.

However, it's only estimation. I'm hoping the CRS scores in the pool is better (have less high scores) than this

 

[srin881]

Received ITA score @463

 

[Angel1113]