As of last draw CIC issued around 44k ITAs this year, Last year in total 92k ITA were issued
Let suppose this year there target is to issue 94k ITAs then they are only left with 50k ITAs. If there will be only biweekly draws then per draw should be of 4150 invites from next draw to achieve target.
We must keep this thing in mind that there is no set limits of invites, It can be more than 4150!
My guess is CIC will increase no of invites in August and there is very high chance of 3 draws in October which will help to clear pool of people having 451+ score. Thus, people with score between 440-445 can expect ITA after September. So instead of going into extra details and complex mathematics, Focus should be on EE application and things which are in our hand.