Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[LKRYA]

May 24 total profiles above 451 = 729 (601-1200 range) +4624 (451 to 600 range) = 5353
May 29 3350 profiles over 470 got cleared and pool over 451 would have come down to 2003+ new

Jun 7 total profiles above 451 = 288 (601-1200 range) +5646 (451 to 600 range) = 5934
Jun 12 3350 profiles over 465 got cleared and pool over 451 would have come down to 2584+ new

Non of the above draws cleared candidates between 451-465 and the increment of profiles over 451 from 24 May to 7 June is clearly (2584-2003) + new. which is 581+New

These mysterious New profiles is what decides the CRS score.

During 14 days period from 24 May to 7 June only 581 profiles and few added between 451-465 range. Therefore, what we could assume is except for that 581 rest of the new profiles added should have to have very high score over 465 to 600. we are talking about 3000+ profiles here and I'm not quite sure how these are added when we already have a ruff idea about the PNPs also.

The positive outcome of this I see is, when this high score profile trend settles, it will not take much time to clear all 450+ candidates.

 

[BLACKPILL]

Hey guys I see there is a post saying his CIC account got updated to June 15,2019 you don't have an invitation to apply. Does that mean they are applying the tie breaker rule for this Wednesday draw?

 

[En_ell88]

My crs is 456 with husband. Any chance of making the draw before 15august? we lose 5 points in August cos of birthday. Should I wait and see or look at giving another shot at IELTS to get a perfect score?

 

[En_ell88]

June 19 CRS: 459 +/-1
465+ candidates after 12th June draw= 45 approx (at 465 only)
451+ per day addition till 19th jun= 303*7= 2121
Out of this 2121:
470+= 50% of 2121= 1061
(465-469)= 12.5 % of 2121= 265
So on 19th Jun first of all below candidates will be picked:
1061+265+45= 1371
Remaining candidates: 3350-1371= 1979
Due to backlog since 1st May candidates on each position of 464 or below= 325
Hence decrease in CRS = 1979/325=6
Hence CRS = 465-6= 459
However all 459 are expected to clear so CRS can be 458 also

If no draw on 19th June , then CRS for 26th June

June 26th CRS: 462 +/-1
465+ candidates after 12th June draw= 45 approx (at 465 only)
451+ per day addition till 26 th jun= 303*14= 4242
Out of this 4242:
470+= 50% of 4242= 2121
(465-469)= 12.5 % of 4242= 530
So on 19th Jun first of all below candidates will be picked:
2121+530+45= 2696
Remaining candidates: 3350-2696= 654
Due to backlog since 1st May candidates on each position of 464 or below= 378
Hence decrease in CRS = 654/378= 1.73
Hence CRS = 465-2=463
However all 463 are expected to clear so CRS can be 462 also

So CRS would be at least 3 points lower if there is a draw on 19th instead of 26th jun because 19th June draw would be on lesser candidates. 303*7 = 2121 (451+) candidates will be added during 19-26th June

Why would it be 19th June? The last draw was on 12th so we should be expecting the next one to happen by 26th right? Isn't it at a two week gap?

 

[BLACKPILL]

Why would it be 19th June? The last draw was on 12th so we should be expecting the next one to happen by 26th right? Isn't it at a two week gap?

We are gambling on back to back draw that sometimes happens. There is a service notice and an update with invitation info, so there is a reason to believe so.

 

[rajapanesar]

Hey guys I see there is a post saying his CIC account got updated to June 15,2019 you don't have an invitation to apply. Does that mean they are applying the tie breaker rule for this Wednesday draw?

Looks like the tie breaker will be placed on June 14 or 15. June 15th time for the tie breaker can be off even by 1 second, and won't get an invite.

 

[BLACKPILL]

Looks like the tie breaker will be placed on June 14 or 15. June 15th time for the tie breaker can be off even by 1 second, and won't get an invite.

Do you have an CIC account? Do you see that message? If this tie breaker rule update always shows up before the next draw then there is for sure a draw.

 

[rajapanesar]

Additionally, when the date of tie breaker is closer to the date of draw, it assures that the higher scoring candidates have all been invited upto that date. Any additions after it will be considered for the next draw and hopefully, not everyone is that high scoring again and the cutoff can lower.

 

[rajapanesar]

Do you have an CIC account? Do you see that message? If this tie breaker rule update always shows up before the next draw then there is for sure a draw.

I'm commenting based on some observations here. I do not have an active profile yet as I'm still waiting for my ECA to be able to create one.

There is a ghost update already in someone's profile dated June 15th about not being invited, then we are assuming that their profile didn't make the cut based on tiebreaker. I cannot remember their CRS score, but the cutoff will be at or +1 their score. Most probably their score.

Edit: spelling

 

[ripul]

Nah, too tired to explore after 3hrs exam,dear..Hahaha, Just went back home straightaway because we had long drive as well...I'm not very good at long drive unfortunately.

Oh wow. My brother in-law just got married in April. How recent was your cousin's marriage? Hahaha

Yes, only an hour drive from Jalandhar,if no heavy traffic than only 45mins.

I will sit for my CD IELTS exam in Jalandhar this Wednesday. That's the closest CD IELTS centre from Nawanshahr. Thank GOD for that as I hate long drive.

Jalandhar IDP CD center is very quiet. There will be hardly 3-4 people. So peaceful giving exam there than crowded Delhi centers. I had to put headphones to avoid keyboard noises in Delhi center

 

[BLACKPILL]

I'm commenting based on some observations here. I do not have an active profile yet as I'm still waiting for my ECA to be able to create one.

There is a ghost update already in someone's profile dated June 15th about not being invited, then we are assuming that their profile didn't make the cut based on tiebreaker. I cannot remember their CRS score, bit the cutoff will be at or +1 their score. Most probably their score.

As long as there is a draw on Wednesday, it is always positive which means high scores candidates are cleared further. I am at 456 and I am hoping the first draw of August or first draw of September the latest. You？

 

[rajapanesar]

As long as there is a draw on Wednesday, it is always positive which means high scores candidates are cleared further. I am at 456 and I am hoping the first draw of August or first draw of September the latest. You？

Hoping ECA in September and a profile immediately.
If I get master's, 461
Otherwise 2 or more, 453

 

[BLACKPILL]

Hoping ECA in September and a profile immediately.
If I get master's, 461
Otherwise 2 or more, 453

Then you are good I say, once your evaluation is done. But be aware there could be another PNP or skilled program draw in late September according to last year.

 

[rajapanesar]

Then you are good I say, once your evaluation is done. But be aware there could be another PNP or skilled program draw in late September according to last year.

I'm aware of that. Plus a -5 for a birthday in November.
It's a one shot chance in October (well a 3 shot exactly, but it's a small window).

 

[Dheana90]

Jalandhar IDP CD center is very quiet. There will be hardly 3-4 people. So peaceful giving exam there than crowded Delhi centers. I had to put headphones to avoid keyboard noises in Delhi center

Oh really?? Have taken CD IELTS in Jalandhar bfore?

Tht would be great if there will be only few people on this Wednesday.

I guess it's because not many people know about it yet. It's pretty new. I think they just opened in March or as early as January.