Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[Punitsingh]

yes punit is right even i got that number 303 people per day
and I am also anticipating it will 340 per day if the current trend continues

No, when something rises suddenly then higher probability it of fall rather than rising more, but let see, will it rise to 340 or come down

 

[sarak1812]

No, when something rises suddenly then higher probability it of fall rather than rising more, but let see, will it rise to 340 or come down

ok got it .

 

[sarak1812]

• Date you submitted your profile: June 4, 2019

ok then not sure may be next draw you will get.
And then please check each every thing thoroughly in order to ensure you are not missine anythnig

Those are the only thing i would do if I were you .

Or may be get help from reliable sources some expert

 

[alfred0]

"After consulting with our family and some friends in Canada, we decided that it would be extremely difficult to raise a child and also establish a family in a new country. As a family, we have decided for me to settle in Canada first by finding a job in my field with a good salary and a house in a great city and neighborhood. Once that's achieved, I would apply PR for my dependents through Family Class Sponsorship."

But I researched about this to certain extent and it seems this is not a vital point in deciding your application's approval/refusal. You just have to give a reason.

You are correct, the reason won't affect the decision.

A few of my friends went with this reason: "The CRS score won't be high enough to get the invitation to immigrate, and I will sponsor my spouse later" Something like this and still have their application approved .

 

[Punitsingh]

ok then not sure may be next draw you will get.
And then please check each every thing thoroughly in order to ensure you are not missine anythnig

Those are the only thing i would do if I were you .

Or may be get help from reliable sources some expert

Better to approach cic and ask for clarification of the matter

 

[sarak1812]

Better to approach cic and ask for clarification of the matter

this message is for you @priyanka93

 

[priyanka93]

ok then not sure may be next draw you will get.
And then please check each every thing thoroughly in order to ensure you are not missine anythnig

Those are the only thing i would do if I were you .

Or may be get help from reliable sources some expert

thank you!

 

[vmsanthosh.chn]

I didn’t want to comment on it. But as you asked, my friend this logic is completely wrong, not a gud sign by any chance
You can refer the calculative posts of other members and you will find out that per day addition of 451+ candidates has increased tremendously since May
May220–>240–>303June

Well, there is no logic here, per se . Just numbers, unless they are incorrect. All I am trying to find out is the backlog growth compared to the previous run (date of announcement of pool distribution, not the draw date).

On 4/26 - backlog is 1511 (Lets start here)
On 5/10 - backlog is 1668 (which is +157 from previous run)
On 5/24 - backlog is 4624 (which is +2956 from previous run)
On 6/7 - backlog is 5646 (which is +1022 from previous run)

Isn't it (compared to prev run) going down from 2956 to 1022? Let's park the /day number for a while.

 

[priyanka93]

this message is for you @priyanka93

Alright, I will do that. Thank you for the insight!

 

[sarak1812]

Well, there is no logic here, per se . Just numbers, unless they are incorrect. All I am trying to find out is the backlog growth compared to the previous run (date of announcement of pool distribution, not the draw date).

On 4/26 - backlog is 1511 (Lets start here)
On 5/10 - backlog is 1668 (which is +157 from previous run)
On 5/24 - backlog is 4624 (which is +2956 from previous run)
On 6/7 - backlog is 5646 (which is +1022 from previous run)

Isn't it (compared to prev run) going down from 2956 to 1022? Let's park the /day number for a while.

you have a point to be noted but there is no logic I can think of for deciding the next run pool numbers based on this calculation
may be the draw every fortnight is necessary to keep the numbers low ?

 

[vmsanthosh.chn]

you have a point to be noted but there is no logic I can think of for deciding the next run pool numbers based on this calculation
may be the draw every fortnight is necessary to keep the numbers low ?

Absolutely, fortnight draws are inevitable now and I wasn't trying for any predictions too for next run, rather just trying to find some light at the end of the tunnel. If what I see is what it is, it doesn't seem to be scary for long run. Sitting at 450 with all doors closed.

 

[Punitsingh]

Alright, I will do that. Thank you for the insight!

@priyanka93 , when you do that, pls publish here the exact steps and cic response as this may happen to anyone
Be very affirmative and strong while communicating with cic because you are right and they appear to be wrong in this case. They must compensate.

 

[Kenneth89]

@13nitinsharma, please let me know how can you say that next draw will be less than 456 bro? Please guide me too.

I didn’t want to comment on it. But as you asked, my friend this logic is completely wrong, not a gud sign by any chance
You can refer the calculative posts of other members and you will find out that per day addition of 451+ candidates has increased tremendously since May
May220–>240–>303June

Pls sir,when do predict the score would drop to 458? Thanks

 

[Kenneth89]

So my prediction was correct for 465.

Congratulations to all who made it

Pls when will the score drop to 458?

 

[Punitsingh]

Well, there is no logic here, per se . Just numbers, unless they are incorrect. All I am trying to find out is the backlog growth compared to the previous run (date of announcement of pool distribution, not the draw date).

On 4/26 - backlog is 1511 (Lets start here)
On 5/10 - backlog is 1668 (which is +157 from previous run)
On 5/24 - backlog is 4624 (which is +2956 from previous run)
On 6/7 - backlog is 5646 (which is +1022 from previous run)

Isn't it (compared to prev run) going down from 2956 to 1022? Let's park the /day number for a while.

Reason for Rate of increase of backlog on 24th May was that the last draw was on 1st May, 24 days gap
Reason for drop in rate of increase of backlog on 7th Jun was that there was a draw just before 9 days
There is nothing positive in that, just a normal scenario