Ray of Hope - 119th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
Anybody knows the impact of BOWP refusal on the PR processing time? I am going to submit the BOWP application at the end of June with only OINP invitation but no EE AOR ( I have not received any invitation so far and I know my BOWP will be refused but that's the only way I can extend my current job). So what are impact on the PR processing time?
Hey dear, I have made an estimation before when we were hoping there would be a draw last Wednesday on 5th June, but I will put the data againam waiting for you data analysis
My estimation based on 24th May score distribution is below:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872
Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:
601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day
451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)
441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day
So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:
600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874
451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679
441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052
Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)
Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.
Therefore, after the invitation,the score distribution will be:
600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052
By 12th June, the score will be approximately:
600+= 406 (29profile x14days)
451-600= 3203+ 2954(211x14) =6157
441-450=6052 + 504(36x14)=6556
I believe that those 3203 profiles(451-600range) left in the pool after the 29th May are those who have score of 470-451.
After the 12th June draw the score distribution should be:
With 3350ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 3213 (6157-2944)
441-450=6556
With 3500ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 3063(6157-3094)
441-450=6556
With 3900ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 2663(6157-3494)
441-450=6556
I can't estimate the cutoff score as it depends on the density of the 451-600 score. All I know is If CIC really have a target of issuing 90,000 ITAs this year then with the 14 draws left to go, they will have to issue approximately 3,900 ITAs per draw from this coming Wednesday iif they really want to achieve the target. Currently, they had issued 35100 ITAs (2x3900 + 8x3350 + 500 FST) since January, so 54900 ITAs to go divided by 14 draws = 3921 ITAs. Therefore, it will be faster for the cutoff score to go back below 450. If they stick with 3350 then unfortunately, it might take 4draws atleast to reach 450 again especially with the high number of high scorers enter the pool daily.
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Good and now you can redo your calculation and do it again. Why? because round 118 was a specific draw only for FST (tradsmen). Most of them have following setup:
1. Their score is usually lower (more like below 400, with only exceptions going above).
2. They do use PNP as well, but there is still not all PNP in EE setup properly for them as well, so their portion is much lower.
So you can maybe think like 100 of them were PNP and rest were low CRS points (below 400). So adjust your numbers starting from draw 117 that happened first week of May.
It will make numbers a little bit less scary (but just a little bit).
Based on that you can estimate around 750 to 800 PNP per month (so app. 375-400 on bi-weekly base).
Using 4 weeks reference for 4624 profiles in 450+ range but no PNP will give you like 192 profiles a day.
So that would mean something 2800 profiles after end of May draw.
And that would estimate to drop a bit to 2500 in next draw.
So from that estimation would be somewhere 458-459 for next draw rather than 460+
But the sad truth is that with current amount of ITA there will be plenty people to replenish that 450+ level for next few months.
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You are a newer member of the forum I guess or at least you haven't been following this forum quite well, otherwise you 'd have known how accurate most of the CRS predictions have been by some of the senior members here (Punitsingh, NikSharma, NitinSharma).
The thing is, that the predictions so made by them and many others heavily rely on observed data and estimated composition of the pool, whereas yours is simply gut feeling without any statistical figure to back it.
Now sure future is unpredictable, but that doesn't mean that it always has to be arbitrary especially when there is a system in place.
P.S - This forum is called 'Ray of Hope'.
If you want to keep up with this pessimistic ideology of yours, better start your own forum called 'Clouds of Disappointment', and maybe take Navinball with you too (he surely belongs there). Lol
Round 118 which was on 29th May was General Draw. FST draw happened on 15thMay which mean 117 round.
I have a screenshot of both 10th May score distribution and 24th May score distribution which were shown on 15th May (FST) and 29th May,respectively. So, I based my estimation of score distribution for 12th June based on that. My estimation is for General draw only so I don't the FST draw invitation nmber issued into consideration. Besides, those that got invited for FST draw were those on the low range (350-400) anyway, so it won't affect the calculation I made which is for high scores.
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Hello... pls what conditions are you required to meet aside of the under listed?
Lmia exempt work Permit/employer specific.
Having worked with same employer on your work Permit for up to 1 year.
And you are currently with that employer.
Regards
In this case you can consider all 4624 profiles in 450+ range to be created / updated after 1. May (if you want you can deduct small amount like 50 or something like that for high FST runners).
So to get idea about profiles per day you can simply use that number and divide by 24 days (days between last normal draw and last posted EE distribution).
That will give you app. 192 profiles per day (which is just a little bit less than your calculated 211 per day. Actually it might be even slightly better as those 450+ profiles also contained a tiny portion of those that lost to the tie break rule
EE profiles have a little bit flexibility as people are observing draws and some are racing them to update their profile just before next draw. That is why you might see more relaxed first 10 days (with only 1700 profiles in 450+ range which is 170 profiles a day), while there was boost of those 211 profiles for next 14 days. These waves do exist, that is why it is better to use overall average (if you can do it) rather than max value.
Usually anywhere between 14:00 - 17:00 UTC. Convert that to Nigerian time zone accordingly.
Did I say anything about B2B draws or ITA's? That's anybody's guess. THAT CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
But whenever they had predicted the CRS with respect to the regular draws, it worked (with minor divergence), unlike you who just comes across with this 'reality' garb of yours without actually contributing anything worthwhile to the forum.
P.S - There is a difference between guesswork and a prediction backed up by statistics and empirical data. Don't try to mix those just for the sake of bashing them up.
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