Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

[NikSharma01]

This is my estimation of CRS score distribution by 29 May based on distribution on 26 April and 1 May, guys
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 26, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 279
451-600 1511
441-450 4957

May 1 invitation =3350
279+1511+ 1100 (+/- 220 EOI enter the pool per day for 450+ points from 27 April to 1 May ) = 2890 + 460 from (4957 of 441-450 rank) total invite 3350

May 1 CRS score distribution would be
601-1,200 0
451-600 0
441-450 4497

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317 = +/- 32 per day from May 1
451-600 1,668 = +/- 167 per day
441-450 5,360 = +/- 86 per day (5360-4497)

By May 29 the CRS score would be

601-1,200 317 + 608(32 x 19days) =925
451-600 1511 + 3173 (167 x 19days) = 4841
441-450 5360 + 1634 (86 x 19days) = 6994

You guys can see the cut off score will be above 451+ even if CIC increase the quota up to 3900.

Due to the increased number of applicants' intake into the pool, the score will remain 460+ on 29th May. If somehow, the ITAs are increased, still the possibility of cut-off being in 460s is slightly high. So, this time increased ITAs won't have a great impact, however in the following couple of draws the score will start decreasing.

 

[sarak1812]

Due to the increased number of applicants' intake into the pool, the score will remain 460+ on 29th May. If somehow, the ITAs are increased, still the possibility of cut-off being in 460s is slightly high. So, this time increased ITAs won't have a great impact, however in the following couple of draws the score will start decreasing.

What if there are less people with 460+ scores and more people between 455- 460 ? Then if suppose the draw is 3350 and around 3000 are with 460+ then remainung 350 can be from 459-458 and hence chances are it will be 458 cutoof

 

[NikSharma01]

The major factors responsible for the cut off are:

1)
More gap within the draws = High cut-off
Less gap within the draws = Low cut-off

2)
Less number of ITAs = High cut-off
More number of ITAs = Less cut-off

So, it will take a while for the cut-off to drop back in the range of 450s. (Whereas, internally I'm willing to be proved wrong by another surprise from CIC)

 

[Dheana90]

You mean if it's 3350 then also score will be 451+ ?
I did not get your last line what do you mean by even if?

Even there is gonna be 3900 Invitation on 29, the score will stay above 451-600 range. No one really knows how many people have score of 451,452,453,455,460,470, ect...Maybe more than
half of those 6994 people in 451-600 score range have 451points, maybe most of them have 460 or 470, no one knows, that is why I just said it will stay above 451-600 range..

 

[13nitinsharma]

This is my estimation of CRS score distribution by 29 May based on distribution on 26 April and 1 May, guys
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 26, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 279
451-600 1511
441-450 4957

May 1 invitation =3350
279+1511+ 1100 (+/- 220 EOI enter the pool per day for 450+ points from 27 April to 1 May ) = 2890 + 460 from (4957 of 441-450 rank) total invite 3350

May 1 CRS score distribution would be
601-1,200 0
451-600 0
441-450 4497

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317 = +/- 32 per day from May 1
451-600 1,668 = +/- 167 per day
441-450 5,360 = +/- 86 per day (5360-4497)

By May 29 the CRS score would be

601-1,200 317 + 608(32 x 19days) =925
451-600 1511 + 3173 (167 x 19days) = 4841
441-450 5360 + 1634 (86 x 19days) = 6994

You guys can see the cut off score will be above 451+ even if CIC increase the quota up to 3900.

To the point analysis, Good job!

3,900 ITA’s will reduce the burden of existing backlog and eventually, cut-off will back to its normal stage. To reiterate, we’re now concerned about ITA’s trend rather than cut-off for next couple of draws.

Also, cut-off will be above 460 this time due to 4 weeks gap!

 

[NikSharma01]

What if there are less people with 460+ scores and more people between 455- 460 ? Then if suppose the draw is 3350 and around 3000 are with 460+ then remainung 350 can be from 459-458 and hence chances are it will be 458 cutoof

Remeber there would be around 1000 people with 600+ scores and more than 5000 with 451+ scores. Indeed, the distribution of ITAs is done is descending order. As far as we don't know the exact figure of applicants with a sound score, it is hard to say whether the 455-460 range will be covered this time or not!

 

[sarak1812]

Remeber there would be around 1000 people with 600+ scores and more with 5000 with 451+ scores. Indeed, the distribution of ITAs is done is descending order. As far as we don't know the exact figure of actual figure of applicants with a sound score, it is hard to say whether the 455-460 range will be covered this time or not!

Ok

 

[sarak1812]

Even there is gonna be 3900 Invitation on 29, the score will stay above 451-600 range. No one really knows how many people have score of 451,452,453,455,460,470, ect...Maybe more than
half of those 6994 people in 451-600 score range have 451points, maybe most of them have 460 or 470, no one knows, that is why I just said it will stay above 451-600 range..

Ok

 

[NikSharma01]

To the point analysis, Good job!

3,900 ITA’s will reduce the burden of existing backlog and eventually, cut-off will back to its normal stage. To reiterate, we’re now concerned about ITA’s trend rather than cut-off for next couple of draws.

Also, cut-off will be above 460 this time due to 4 weeks gap!

Even there is gonna be 3900 Invitation on 29, the score will stay above 451-600 range. No one really knows how many people have score of 451,452,453,455,460,470, ect...Maybe more than
half of those 6994 people in 451-600 score range have 451points, maybe most of them have 460 or 470, no one knows, that is why I just said it will stay above 451-600 range..

Anyways, one thing can be said with certainty that after a 4 weeks gap the ITAs will be increased for sure. Issuing the same number of ITAs(3350) doesn't seem worthy to me anymore. The figure of ITAs this time will be either 3500 or 3900 .

 

[Shishir Chandra Kumar]

This is my estimation of CRS score distribution by 29 May based on distribution on 26 April and 1 May, guys
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 26, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 279
451-600 1511
441-450 4957

May 1 invitation =3350
279+1511+ 1100 (+/- 220 EOI enter the pool per day for 450+ points from 27 April to 1 May ) = 2890 + 460 from (4957 of 441-450 rank) total invite 3350

May 1 CRS score distribution would be
601-1,200 0
451-600 0
441-450 4497

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317 = +/- 32 per day from May 1
451-600 1,668 = +/- 167 per day
441-450 5,360 = +/- 86 per day (5360-4497)

By May 29 the CRS score would be

601-1,200 317 + 608(32 x 19days) =925
451-600 1511 + 3173 (167 x 19days) = 4841
441-450 5360 + 1634 (86 x 19days) = 6994

You guys can see the cut off score will be above 451+ even if CIC increase the quota up to 3900.

Look.. but if the ita in teases to 3900 or 4200 then it will take less time to. Clear out the pool, and there will be good chances of score coming down in 441-450 bucket soon

 

[indpnv]

To the point analysis, Good job!

3,900 ITA’s will reduce the burden of existing backlog and eventually, cut-off will back to its normal stage. To reiterate, we’re now concerned about ITA’s trend rather than cut-off for next couple of draws.

Also, cut-off will be above 460 this time due to 4 weeks gap!

Well, we could see a Monday draw also just the like we saw in October 2018.

 

[Folaroyal]

Ok.. guys please a quick one...
Can you do biometrics upfront for PR?

 

[Nsidhu]

Ok.. guys please a quick one...
Can you do biometrics upfront for PR?

i think you told me few days back that its not valid even 1 day before ??

 

[Dheana90]

Hi guys

I really need help with work experince calculation. On CIC website it says below

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility/federal-skilled-workers.html#skilled

• at least 1 year of continuous work or 1,560 hours total (30 hours per week). You can meet this in a few different ways:
  • full-time at 1 job: 30 hours/week for 12 months = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)
  • equal amount in part-time: 15 hours/week for 24 months = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)
  • full-time at more than 1 job: 30 hours/week for 12 months at more than 1 job = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)

For part-time work, you can work more or less than 15 hours/week as long as it adds up to 1,560 hours.

I was working part time from August 2012 to March 2018. I worked 20hrs/week from Aug 2012 to Dec 2015, then worked 16hrs/week till end of my employment. So, in total I worked for 5076hours in 5 years and 7 months during my part time job.

So, based on the last paragraph stated on the CIC website ( For part-time work, you can work more or less than 15 hours/week as long as it adds up to 1,560 hours.), can I claim 3 years work experience, since 3 x 1560hrs=4680hrs and I worked more than that? TIA for your input guys. Really appreciate it

 

[indpnv]

Hi guys

I really need help with work experince calculation. On CIC website it says below

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/eligibility/federal-skilled-workers.html#skilled

• at least 1 year of continuous work or 1,560 hours total (30 hours per week). You can meet this in a few different ways:
  • full-time at 1 job: 30 hours/week for 12 months = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)
  • equal amount in part-time: 15 hours/week for 24 months = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)
  • full-time at more than 1 job: 30 hours/week for 12 months at more than 1 job = 1 year full time (1,560 hours)

For part-time work, you can work more or less than 15 hours/week as long as it adds up to 1,560 hours.

I was working working part time from August 2012 to March 2018. I work 20hrs/week from Aug 2012 to Dec 2015, then work 16hrs/week till end of my employment. So, in total I work for 5076hours in 5 years and 7 months during my part time job.

So, based on the last paragraph stated on the CIC website ( For part-time work, you can work more or less than 15 hours/week as long as it adds up to 1,560 hours.), can I claim 3 years work experience, since 3 x 1560hrs=4680hrs and I work more than that? TIA for your input guys. Really appreciate it

Did you create an EE profile?