Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[veritas1994]

Cool, congrats man


Thank you, what I dont understand is how comecome pe with 451 are still in the pool before Jan 9,2019 tie breaker when there was draw in Jan 29,2019 for 438 as they would have got an ITA

I am not sure how thats possible either. Anyone wanna chime in?

 

[emitremmus]

I received my ITA a few hours ago.

Kind of in shock! But very happy!

 

[veritas1994]

People are telling my predictions negetive but they are rite. Without any ielts result CRS was 451 and reason for that are

1. Inland applicants adds there experience
2. Computer based IELTS
3. PNP
4. CELPIP Exam
5. There will be some new inland or Outland applicants with great ielts results.
6. ECA report. People were waiting but than they recived it so they get their points and apply.
7. Don’t forget PNP of Provence Edward island, Northwest territory ( processing time is 3 weeks once you recived invitation for PNP)

Computer based tests give results in 5-7 days so thats always going on. Also, people are always getting ECA reports, nothing different this time. Why would a PNP have an increasing effect on the CRS?

The reason for 451 is not too hard to figure out. The intake of >450 CRS candidates is about 1400 per week, so about 2800 per 2 weeks. So for every draw, there is only 500-600 candidates difference between intake and outtake. This is the number thats responsible for decreasing the CRS. It will continue to drop by 1-2 points AS LONG AS :
1. Rate of >450 CRS candidates DO NOT increase
2. They continue to issue 3350 ITAs per draw

Thankfully, it looks like they increase # of ITAs issued as the year goes by which should further decrease the cutoffs. I am about to post an analysis of last years numbers soon.

 

[SeniorStakes]

@SeniorStakes I hope you got your ITA bro, let us know, congratulations!!

Ohh gosh! My sleep just disappeared.

No, lost to tie breaker. My application submission was 02 Feb, even though my IELTS was ready in early Nov. I am such a fool I delayed getting into the system.

I now must decide whether or not to give IELTS again. Between Jan 10 and Feb 02, there shouldn't be more than 20-40 candidates because there was anyway a draw of 438 on 30 Jan.

I lost by a whisker. Two more draws before my birthday.

 

[veritas1994]

Ohh gosh! My sleep just disappeared.

No, lost to tie breaker. My application submission was 02 Feb, even though my IELTS was ready in early Nov. I am such a fool I delayed getting into the system.

I now must decide whether or not to give IELTS again. Between Jan 10 and Feb 02, there shouldn't be more than 20-40 candidates because there was anyway a draw of 438 on 30 Jan.

I lost by a whisker. Two more draws before my birthday.

This should continue to drop by 1-2 points for the next draw too. You should be there in 2 draws easy. But no harm in making preparations for IELTS if you feel its a good idea

 

[SeniorStakes]

Congrats to all who got an ITA today!! @SeniorStakes , Hope you got it!

450 here... still waiting

No bro, lost to tie breaker, unfortunately!

 

[veritas1994]

They should start increasing the number of ITAs in the next draw or the one after that

 

[keyur sharma]

Computer based tests give results in 5-7 days so thats always going on. Also, people are always getting ECA reports, nothing different this time. Why would a PNP have an increasing effect on the CRS?

The reason for 451 is not too hard to figure out. The intake of >450 CRS candidates is about 1400 per week, so about 2800 per 2 weeks. So for every draw, there is only 500-600 candidates difference between intake and outtake. This is the number thats responsible for decreasing the CRS. It will continue to drop by 1-2 points AS LONG AS :
1. Rate of >450 CRS candidates DO NOT increase
2. They continue to issue 3350 ITAs per draw

Thankfully, it looks like they increase # of ITAs issued as the year goes by which should further decrease the cutoffs. I am about to post an analysis of last years numbers soon.

No they will not increase ITAs and reason is they sent more ITAs this year than last year. Last year till today they sent 17500 where this year they sent 22550 (5500 more) .

 

[SeniorStakes]

That's right! Atleast one thing happened in order, and that is the draw today itself. We still have a possibility of the 3rd draw this month.

With my experience in life I've found that if we chase something, we hardly get it. However, when we aren't willing to do that, things seem easily approachable. When I was waiting for my ECA, pool was in the range of 440 not to big. I was relaxed and thought I also would get the ITA without any trouble. Whereas, when I got my ECA on Feb 1, things became difficult. (I was already having the feeling that such situation might happen)

Now, when I'm planning to register for the IELTS, I'm having another feeling that the score would drop back in the lower 440s with one week draw in the last week of April. At that time I would have been registered as well as appreared for the exam most probably. It always happens. Life never seems easy for you. Whatever you assumes, it never happens.

Can't agree more! Despite my father-in-law pushing for a Tatkaal pasport for my wife, I went with normal application to save 2000 Rs. as I felt normal passport too would come through in two weeks. It did come in early December, but my wife got unwell and we pushed her IELTS exam to January only to receive her score by 02 Feb.

Had I not saved 2000 in November, I would have gotten through long back...lol

Life is what happens to us today when we are busy planning for tomorrow

 

[jaySil]

I am not sure how thats possible either. Anyone wanna chime in?

There can be several reasons for this.
(1) People who got the ITA may decline it and will come back to the pool due to various reasons (unable to gather all documents within 60 days etc)
(2) People who had a lower CRS may have improved it through IELTS or work experience.
(3) New people enter the pool with high CRS

etc.

 

[veritas1994]

No they will not increase ITAs and reason is they sent more ITAs this year than last year. Last year till today they sent 17500 where this year they sent 22550 (5500 more) .

Targets are higher. We do not know anything about the rejection rate. And they DID ramp up the # of ITAs issued very obviously last year. Its a clear pattern. Theres no reason why they wont hold to the same pattern.

Also whenever we are talking about things we do not have definite knowledge of it is usually a good idea to show some uncertainty. Having your kind of confidence about something like this is ridiculous.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Anyone from Mumbai?

Need suggestion from someone who has done medical in either one of this two centers. Which is better CDC or Lilavati in Mumbai?

Go for Lilavati .The others make you do more tests.

 

[keyur sharma]

Targets are higher. We do not know anything about the rejection rate. And they DID ramp up the # of ITAs issued very obviously last year. Its a clear pattern. Theres no reason why they wont hold to the same pattern.

Also whenever we are talking about things we do not have definite knowledge of it is usually a good idea to show some uncertainty. Having your kind of confidence about something like this is ridiculous.

Lol dude I worked for immigration company from 2015-2017 and now opened my own office in Mississauga. I am a register IRCCC immigration advisor who did 3 year program. And almost 349 applicants who applied through us.and when I was working I used to work under Green and Spiegle(one of the best immigration lawyer in Canada ).

 

[veritas1994]

Lol dude I worked for immigration company from 2015-2017 and now opened my own office in Mississauga. I am a register IRCCC immigration advisor who did 3 year program. And almost 349 applicants who applied through us.and when I was working I used to work under Green and Spiegle(one of the best immigration lawyer in Canada ).

Great congratulations. I didnt realize you had an inner know how of how IRCC works. Heres the breakdown for last year based on number of ITAs :

# OF ITAs ISSUED IN 2018 FOR EACH DRAW

Jan 10th - 2750
Jan 24th - 2750
Feb 7th - 3000
Feb 24th - 3000
March 14th - 3000
March 26th - 3000
April 11th - 3500
April 25th - 3500
May 9th - 3500
May 23rd - 3500
June 13th - 3750
June 25th - 3750
July 11th - 3750
July 25th - 3750
Aug 8th - 3750
Aug 22nd - 3750
Sept 5th - 3900
Sept 19th - 3500
Oct 3rd - 3900
Oct 15th - 3900
Oct 29th - 3900
Nov 14th - 3900
Nov 28th - 3900
Dec 12th - 3900
Dec 19th - 3900

My only point was they OBVIOUSLY ramp up the numbers. It is a clear pattern.

 

[keyur sharma]

Great congratulations. I didnt realize you had an inner know how of how IRCC works. Heres the breakdown for last year based on number of ITAs :

# OF ITAs ISSUED IN 2018 FOR EACH DRAW

Jan 10th - 2750
Jan 24th - 2750
Feb 7th - 3000
Feb 24th - 3000
March 14th - 3000
March 26th - 3000
April 11th - 3500
April 25th - 3500
May 9th - 3500
May 23rd - 3500
June 13th - 3750
June 25th - 3750
July 11th - 3750
July 25th - 3750
Aug 8th - 3750
Aug 22nd - 3750
Sept 5th - 3900
Sept 19th - 3500
Oct 3rd - 3900
Oct 15th - 3900
Oct 29th - 3900
Nov 14th - 3900
Nov 28th - 3900
Dec 12th - 3900
Dec 19th - 3900

My only point was they OBVIOUSLY ramp up the numbers. It is a clear pattern.

Last year total ITA 89000.
This year still 20 draws left. So 3350*20 =67000 and they already send 22550 ITAs .

67000+22550 = 89550 .
There target is in between 80000-90000.
Cheers.
Stop giving wrong hopes.