Ray of Hope - 114th Draw
- Thread starter rza313
- Start date
For CIC, the target is the number of PR people after successfully landing in Canada. Number of ITAs doesn't give a clear targeting.Ah this makes me sad.Are the CIC targets for the year for accepted and successfully processed ITAs OR just ITAs sent?
Hi, would you mind explaining these stages after ITA in your footer?
ITA 15.11§AoR 17.12§NA1 17.12§MEP 3 Jan§IP1 03.01§ADR1 03.01§ADR2 08.01§NA2 11.01§ADNR 01.02§PVO transfer 02.02 §IP2 27.02 § Ghost update 20.07 § PPR 23.07 § CoPR 13.08 § LANDING September
I am a bit confused about whether candidates with more than 600+ count under Economic, Federal High Skilled (FSWP, FSTP, CEC; 81400) program, or under a provincial program.
Thanks Suraj
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Hey sland_vibes,
You were a strong supporter of increased ITAs. Don't lose your hopes, we will see more than 3350 ITAs in coming draws either on 3rd April or 17 April.
Cheers,
Suraj
Numbers mean dates, and AoR - acknowledgement of receipt. MEP medical, ip1 - in progress, adr - additional document, pvo - paris Visa office, ip2 - background checking, ghost update - an update without any change in my account, ppr - passport request.
If I am not wrong, backlog freed up until 14 March (not in the last draw because we don't have exact data after 14 March): 390 (obtained from stats on 28 Feb versus 14 Mar) which included 6th March draw. We don't know yet how many candidates are still there in the pool with 451 and 452 scores.Therefore, as -557 + 525 + 100 = ~50, we can conclude that most of 451+ backlog get through in the coming draw and the CRS cut-off should be 451 itself.
- Backlog freed up in the last draw: 390 (obtained from stats on 28 Feb versus 14 Mar)
- Number of applications 441 - 500 on 14 Mar: 2823
- Let's assume number of folks at 451 and 452 to be 300 each
- Pending backlog : 300 + 300*0.75 (as partial 452 was given ITAs) = 525
- As we are taking cues from 28 Feb to 14 Mar, and given that IELTS result dates were 27 Feb and 15 Mar, no IELTS result aspect is getting offset.
- Backlog getting cleared from 14 Mar to 3 April: 390 + 390*6/14 = 557
- General increase in 450+ application flow : 100
PS: The above analysis is done objectively without considering my own CRS score
If the distribution of candidates from 441 to 452 is homogeneous, on 28 March I expect around 3600 candidates between 441 to 450 or 4000 candidates on 3rd April. This means there should be around 283 candidates each with 451 and 452 on 14 March. In the next 6 day, lets assume 40 candidates added to each score 451 and 452.
If we apply the same calculations for 20 March draw, we could easily understand why the cut-off was 452.
If this continues the cut-off should be 450 (3350) with a Feb first week tiebreaker. If the frequency of candidates has decreased it might come down to 449.
Let's discuss in detail if you find I missed something
Cheers,
Suraj
Guys , how many draws they will have this month ? I know 2 is the must common. But is it likely they will have only one draw? I hope this doesn't happen given the last cut off mark
Thank you ! I hope so. What if they have only one draw this month ? We will be screwed. Is it likely I'm getting worried