Ray of Hope - 92nd Draw

[lightning_crashes]

I gave IELTS before ECA - so different ppl give it in different orders.
every one behaves different - so we can not predict with IELTS result/without/with ECA/without what is the score going to be. there are just too many variables. so try to relax between the wednesdays and try to see if your score can be improved.

i have a good feeling that the score is going to drop this week even with the two IELTS.

the wave of ppl or the surge with drop bringing the score down in the next few months.

 

[samikdg]

A quick analysis of profiles with 440+ entering pool in 04-24 May period:
Number of Profiles on 4th May with CRS 441 or above = 205+1116+992=2313
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 2 draws in May=3500*2-100=6900
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 4th-24th May=6900-2313+228=4815
Daily Rate=4815/20=241/day

But, similar analysis from 16th-24th May yields following:
Number of Profiles on 16th May with CRS 441 or above = 185+871+909=1965
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 23rd May draw=3500-100=3400
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 16th-24th May=3400-1965+228=1663
Daily Rate=1663/8=208/day

We all know there was a major influx between 4th-9th May and assuming that is due to OINP nominations, but also keep in mind that the IELTS result came out on 4th May itself, so there would be a surge due to that also. The IELTS-free draw still had about 208/day influx, so it is hard to tell.

With above, I think the next draw on 6th June will be crucial as it should show what is the influx happening with IELTS result and no siginificant PNP nominations. If it is stable in the 200-210/day region, we can hope that the cut-off will gradually come down over next 2-3 months. Larger draw size will definitely help. People saying that June 20th draw having cut-off slightly increased have some merit though, as 2 IELTS results will mean higher influx, how much higher is the question

 

[Midnight Blessing]

I don't think most people are doing ECA first!! Because if that is the case then how come 195 people end up from may 9th to may 23rd(no ielts result out)?? I couldn't find any other explanation for that number!!

the most viable explanation is they are from PNP route actually...

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

I wonder if IRCC would provide the usual CRS score pool distribution at the next draw. Bearing in mind that the table displayed for last week draw had the distribution of 24th may (a day after the draw of 23rd). If they do, that table would really provide an insight into inflows into the pool. We should also bare in mind that ECA last 5yrs while ielts 2yr so pple might be inclined to geting ECA before IELTS

 

[mary99]

how come none of us have IRCC friends??

 

[mary99]

What about thinking Australia as the other option?

Not enough points for Australia
but anyways, I want to immigrate to Canada.

 

[samikdg]

I wonder if IRCC would provide the usual CRS score pool distribution at the next draw. Bearing in mind that the table displayed for last week draw had the distribution of 24th may (a day after the draw of 23rd). If they do, that table would really provide an insight into inflows into the pool. We should also bare in mind that ECA last 5yrs while ielts 2yr so pple might be inclined to geting ECA before IELTS

They would, that has been the custom all throughout, the pool distribution date may be around 31st May or 1st June

 

[chow26]

Hi,
A newbie here,

So I know "waiting for an ITA thread" and some of it's silly questions deserves serious punching ....but I need clarity on one thing.

* So even if your CRS is above the cut off, you'd still have to wait for an upcoming draw to receive an ITA?? I am wrong or right??

My score is 456 and I am hanging in there even after 50 hours of submitting my profile. Is it okay? Or should I do something about it

I received an email though, about 29 hours ago saying there's "an update in your cic profile".
I didn't update it at all. And nothing else has changed when I checked .

Help!

 

[vensak]

A quick analysis of profiles with 440+ entering pool in 04-24 May period:
Number of Profiles on 4th May with CRS 441 or above = 205+1116+992=2313
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 2 draws in May=3500*2-100=6900
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 4th-24th May=6900-2313+228=4815
Daily Rate=4815/20=241/day

But, similar analysis from 16th-24th May yields following:
Number of Profiles on 16th May with CRS 441 or above = 185+871+909=1965
Number of Profiles on 24th May with CRS 441 or above = 45+127+56=228
Assuming around 100 profiles with CRS exactly 440 got ITA on 23rd May draw, number of profiles with CRS 441 or above cleared in the 23rd May draw=3500-100=3400
Hence, number of profiles of 441 or above who entered between 16th-24th May=3400-1965+228=1663
Daily Rate=1663/8=208/day

We all know there was a major influx between 4th-9th May and assuming that is due to OINP nominations, but also keep in mind that the IELTS result came out on 4th May itself, so there would be a surge due to that also. The IELTS-free draw still had about 208/day influx, so it is hard to tell.

With above, I think the next draw on 6th June will be crucial as it should show what is the influx happening with IELTS result and no siginificant PNP nominations. If it is stable in the 200-210/day region, we can hope that the cut-off will gradually come down over next 2-3 months. Larger draw size will definitely help. People saying that June 20th draw having cut-off slightly increased have some merit though, as 2 IELTS results will mean higher influx, how much higher is the question

There will always (or almost always) be some PNP nomination. That is the stable part of EE as such. Actually app. 500 ITA per draw are reserved to them.
Same as there is no such thing as "to clear applicants above certain CRS value", there is also no such thing as "to clear PNP applicants".

It can be either that more ITA was called than the income during 2 weeks - then CRS will fall down. Or the same amount, then CRS will remain the same or less than the new EE profiles created and then CRS will rise.

 

[Ronja5200]

Hi,
A newbie here,

So I know "waiting for an ITA thread" and some of it's silly questions deserves serious punching ....but I need clarity on one thing.

* So even if your CRS is above the cut off, you'd still have to wait for an upcoming draw to receive an ITA?? I am wrong or right??

My score is 456 and I am hanging in there even after 50 hours of submitting my profile. Is it okay? Or should I do something about it

I received an email though, about 29 hours ago saying there's "an update in your cic profile".
I didn't update it at all. And nothing else has changed when I checked .

Help!

Yes, you'd still have to wait for the upcoming draw to receive an ITA. Most likely it will be on Wednesday, and if not next Wednesday!

What do you mean by "hanging in there?". It sounds fine, but am not sure what you mean.

In regards to the E-mail, I submitted my profile on Thursday, and then on Friday I got an E-mail that it was updated. I assume it was because my profile was made active in the pool.

Hope it helps!

 

[chow26]

Yes, you'd still have to wait for the upcoming draw to receive an ITA. Most likely it will be on Wednesday, and if not next Wednesday!

What do you mean by "hanging in there?". It sounds fine, but am not sure what you mean.

In regards to the E-mail, I submitted my profile on Thursday, and then on Friday I got an E-mail that it was updated. I assume it was because my profile was made active in the pool.

Hope it helps!

Thanks @Ronja5200
> Hangin in there > fingers crossed n waitin

 

[Ronja5200]

Thanks @Ronja5200
> Hangin in there > fingers crossed n waitin

May I ask you, why are you nervous? If you are 456 is a great score, you'll for sure get in! Good luck in your journey to Canada!

 

[chow26]

May I ask you, why are you nervous? If you are 456 is a great score, you'll for sure get in! Good luck in your journey to Canada!

Haha, nervous, yes! More like a dog whose sitting alert and wagging it's tail for every email that says pinggg .LoL. master ITA come home soon

Thanks a ton. Wish you all the best with all your stages as well.

 

[Reddiered07]

There will always (or almost always) be some PNP nomination. That is the stable part of EE as such. Actually app. 500 ITA per draw are reserved to them.
Same as there is no such thing as "to clear applicants above certain CRS value", there is also no such thing as "to clear PNP applicants".

It can be either that more ITA was called than the income during 2 weeks - then CRS will fall down. Or the same amount, then CRS will remain the same or less than the new EE profiles created and then CRS will rise.

I don't think so that the release of PNPs is stable evry draw! If you see on may 9th draw there was a huge influx of entrants..250+..if the pnp release was constant then we would not observe that spike! Don't say that suddenly people with higher scores increased from that particular draw onwards..doesn't make sense!

 

[samikdg]

There will always (or almost always) be some PNP nomination. That is the stable part of EE as such. Actually app. 500 ITA per draw are reserved to them.
Same as there is no such thing as "to clear applicants above certain CRS value", there is also no such thing as "to clear PNP applicants".

It can be either that more ITA was called than the income during 2 weeks - then CRS will fall down. Or the same amount, then CRS will remain the same or less than the new EE profiles created and then CRS will rise.

"It can be either that more ITA was called than the income during 2 weeks - then CRS will fall down. Or the same amount, then CRS will remain the same or less than the new EE profiles created and then CRS will rise."
- That is obvious to anyone (including myself) following the draws and knowing basic arithmetic, you didn't need to spell it out

The question is why is there the variation of new EE profiles created above 440, and if we can somehow predict the expected range for that. My whole analysis was about that.
Also, I don't agree that PNP numbers are stable in each EE draw as @Reddiered07 has also pointed out above!