IRCC's posted timeline is explicitly based on how long applications took in the
PAST and does NOT purport to tell applicants how long it will take for their application to be processed. The IRCC web page currently showing "12 month(s)" as the timeline for applications made after April 1, 2015, states:
For emphasis: "
how long it took . . . in the past . . . "
In other topics (and in other forums as well) I have gone into detail about the history of CIC and IRCC posted timelines, and the dramatic decline in transparency that began under Harper's government and, unfortunately, continues to decline under the current Liberal government. A decade ago (yes, I have been following this that long) there were many, many statistics readily accessible by the public, including how long it had taken (in a given year) to process, respectively, 20%, 50%, and 80% of routinely processed applications (and thus, back then, it was easy to see the contrast between how long it took for those processed faster compared to how long it took for most, as in half plus one, compared to how long it took for many more), in conjunction with specific numbers for how many applications were submitted per quarter of the year, how many hearings there were with Citizenship Judges, how many applications were granted, how many were denied, how many appeals had been filed by applicants, by the government, how many applications for mandamus had been filed, and numbers as to the outcomes of those judicial applications (appeals and writ applications, including withdrawn applications of which there were many). There used to be an annual report published by Citizenship Judges detailing all sorts of information about the process, outcomes, number and type of cases processed per judge.
IRCC's current information indicates but does not definitively state that the currently published timeline is based on how long it took for 80% of applications, or routinely processed applications, to be processed in the "past," without being specific about when that was. Not too long ago the website was more specific, and did definitively state that the posted timeline was based on how long it took to process 80% of ROUTINELY processed applications. Since then, however, IRCC has dropped the routine versus non-routine distinction, at least in what information it provides the public, and is more vague about what statistics its posted timeline is derived from.
IRCC links to answers for "top questions about processing times" go to generic almost non-informational general descriptions about processing times mostly about visa office processing NOT citizenship application processing. Part of the continuing trend to be less and less transparent. Little substantive information. Lots of glib, superficial description which typically illuminates little or nothing.
ALL of WHICH I UNDERSTAND CONTRIBUTES TO MANY PR'S FRUSTRATIONS. Unfortunately this trend toward declining transparency appears to be deeply entrenched in most Western Democratic governments . . . what the government does, how it does it, and why, is increasingly deemed "classified," "confidential," or otherwise secret, while at the same time the gathering and compilation and organization and sharing of real numbers has also declined, somewhat due to funding constraints of course, but a lot to do with less priority given to informing the public. While a few European governments have somewhat bucked the trend, around the globe most governments are almost racing in this direction, with the U.S. leading the way in all too many respects (as usual, unfortunately).