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Ray of Hope - 90th Draw

syntaxrage

Hero Member
May 21, 2018
296
131
the draw


the draw always come down by 2 points, just wait for the next draw, i blv its gonna come down to 439. just keep ur hopes high.
Not always by 2 points. 456 to 446 = 10 points difference, then 446 to 444 = 2pts difference and 444 to 441 = 3 points.
 

noname7

Star Member
Apr 25, 2018
122
129
would an IELTS free draw guarantee a CSR significantly lower than the previous rounds? Any situations like this in 2017 or 2016?
Nothing is guaranteed and with completely different trend in applications, IRCC structure, quota increase etc. we cannot just compare a scenario from last year to now. However, an IELTS free draw would reduce daily new entries thereby reducing the score. How much does it reduce the score, again depends on several factors and no one can say. You can check out my post above (#1030) and also #772 on page 52 for more estimates.
 
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Polarbear1

Star Member
Feb 12, 2018
65
54
India
No one actually knows the impact of no IELTS result on the cut-off score for sure, as this is a rare phenomenon and has never occured before. It's the ROH thread, so let's assume, this variable does affect the cut-off. However, considering the recent (five months) trend, I won't be surprised if IRCC announces a 442+ cut-off on 23rd May. I really hope the predictions on ROH to be spot on this time.
I fear this too.
Why can't things be rational...clear out 1 crs poin per draw
 

Avengers

Star Member
Apr 26, 2018
85
112
Someone asked me yesterday an astonished strange question but it's really funny ...He was really angry with the way CRS system work...Said if someone has points for additional language then why don,t they have column for "wife 2" to earn extra 20 points......:(:(:(:(:D:D:D
 

Reddiered07

Hero Member
May 3, 2018
613
499
I did some research and found out there was no time in 2018 where no IELTS results took place between 2 draws:

IELTS results||Draw dates||Entrants per day
19th Jan||24th Jan||163
2nd Feb||7th Feb||186
14th Feb||21st Feb||227
23th Feb||14th March||226
16th March||26th March||181
4th April||11th April||196
20th April||25th April||196
4th May||9th May||219

So im guessing that new entrants per day this time would be significantly low compared to last time.. It might even reach 150 entrants per day above 440 which would result in 2100 overall new entrants on 23rd may.. and assuming around 400 already sitting on 441 from previous draw..1000 to 1500 ITA's needs to be issued from 440 and below based on 3500/4000 itas will be issued...guys with 439 and 438..be ready to get an ITA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Based on the above...even if we assume the least entrants(with ielts results) will be entrants for may 9th to may 23rd...i.e 160 (january)...the number of new entrants would be...160*15=2400..and add around 500 already sitting on 441...that leaves around 600 to be flushed out from 440 and below...but i hope the number of new entrants would be lower than that..im expecting around 130...which leaves around 1000 to be flushed out from 440 and below...based on these assumotions i would say...440 or even 439 would be the cut-off!!
 

Avengers

Star Member
Apr 26, 2018
85
112
draw if happens tomorrow; 440 is sure n bit of 439...it's as simple as that,no calculations. ..however with no draw means on 30th with 3 weeks gap it may spike to 448+ ...which surely nobody wants...from next month we may see 3750 as someone earlier predicted n calculated which will bring crs down for sure..also fewer people are taking ielts now which means less candidates. ..so 430 - 438 just get yourselves ready with doc preparation ..
 

Reddiered07

Hero Member
May 3, 2018
613
499
draw if happens tomorrow; 440 is sure n bit of 439...it's as simple as that,no calculations. ..however with no draw means on 30th with 3 weeks gap it may spike to 448+ ...which surely nobody wants...from next month we may see 3750 as someone earlier predicted n calculated which will bring crs down for sure..also fewer people are taking ielts now which means less candidates. ..so 430 - 438 just get yourselves ready with doc preparation ..
How do you know about fewer people taking IELTS? Thats interesting and hopeful!
 
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SumH12

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Apr 11, 2018
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Category........
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12-12-2018
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A couple of days ago, I read a theory (I don’t remember who wrote it) and since then, I cannot forget it...

February 26 was last NOIs issuance under HCP and the range was 433-441. And there was a 3 weeks gap between draws. That gap resulted in a notably CRS increase, and “reverted” the decreasing tendency of the minimum CRS. It was like a “reset”, driving that the minimum stayed 441+.

Maybe starting June there would be bigger ITAs quotas (3,750 or hopefully 4000 :)) moving the minimum to 430s levels, and maybe next month they will start reissuing HCP NOIs for lower CRS.

Anyway, I really hope that 90th draw happens this Wednesday and that it results in 439 or less.
 

bimale4bipeople

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Apr 15, 2018
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A couple of days ago, I read a theory (I don’t remember who wrote it) and since then, I cannot forget it...

February 26 was last NOIs issuance under HCP and the range was 433-441. And there was a 3 weeks gap between draws. That gap resulted in a notably CRS increase, and “reverted” the decreasing tendency of the minimum CRS. It was like a “reset”, driving that the minimum stayed 441+.

Maybe starting June there would be bigger ITAs quotas (3,750 or hopefully 4000 :)) moving the minimum to 430s levels, and maybe next month they will start reissuing HCP NOIs for lower CRS.

Anyway, I really hope that 90th draw happens this Wednesday and that it results in 439 or less.
When you talk about HCP you are talking about PNP. On 26 Feb notification of interest(NOI) were issued, but that does not mean that they they awarded 600 points. Based on the NOI you have to apply for the PNP program which takes its own share of time to process and get approved. After this approval only you are awarded those 600 points to be added to your EE score
 

SumH12

Hero Member
Apr 11, 2018
522
303
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Sydney NS
NOC Code......
1112
Nomination.....
26-09-2018
AOR Received.
06-10-2018
Med's Done....
12-12-2018
Passport Req..
11-03-2019
VISA ISSUED...
22-03-2019
When you talk about HCP you are talking about PNP. On 26 Feb notification of interest(NOI) were issued, but that does not mean that they they awarded 600 points. Based on the NOI you have to apply for the PNP program which takes its own share of time to process and get approved. After this approval only you are awarded those 600 points to be added to your EE score
Yes, PNP. It takes around 60-90 days to get nomination after accepting NOI and paying fee (if everything is ok and complete).

The theory was about ensuring that the minimum CRS in draws stays 441 or more, because during this trimester they were processing those February NOIs.
 

bimale4bipeople

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Apr 15, 2018
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Yes, PNP. It takes around 60-90 days to get nomination after accepting NOI and paying fee (if everything is ok and complete).

The theory was about ensuring that the minimum CRS in draws stays 441 or more, because during this trimester they were processing those February NOIs.
60-90 is just a quoted number, I was on a thread for Feb-Mar 2017 PNP applicants and quite a few of them have not yet received there nomination. I read on those threads that 16-18 months is pretty normal.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/pnp-pr-february-march-april-2017-applicants-lets-connect-here.482797/page-143
 
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SumH12

Hero Member
Apr 11, 2018
522
303
Category........
PNP
Visa Office......
Sydney NS
NOC Code......
1112
Nomination.....
26-09-2018
AOR Received.
06-10-2018
Med's Done....
12-12-2018
Passport Req..
11-03-2019
VISA ISSUED...
22-03-2019
60-90 is just a quoted number, I was on a thread for Jan-Feb 2017 PNP applicants and quite a few of them have not yet received there nomination. I read on those threads that 16-18 months is pretty normal.
Really? Woww that s a lot of time :confused: I was planning to take that way if I was receiving a NOI, but that’s a really long way.

Is there a chance that those cases are under the paper way? I am surprised with this info.:(
 

navinball

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Feb 26, 2018
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60-90 is just a quoted number, I was on a thread for Feb-Mar 2017 PNP applicants and quite a few of them have not yet received there nomination. I read on those threads that 16-18 months is pretty normal.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/pnp-pr-february-march-april-2017-applicants-lets-connect-here.482797/page-143
nah they are processing within 60 to 90 days for everyone who recently submitted (after jan). i got mine in 74 days.
 
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VIJAYMAGHNANI

Star Member
Mar 7, 2018
142
14
Hi, May be this question has been asked few times but I couldn't find a answer.

to claim full points for work experience (3 years) does it need to be in same NOC ?

I have 2 years in 1 NOC followed by another 2 years in another NOC, can I claim full points for 3 years & related CRS

Please suggest ?

Vijay