Ray of Hope - 90th Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
Kinda glad I wasn't here for today's disappointing draw.
After reading this article, I have more hope now:
https://www.cicnews.com/2018/05/new-express-entry-draw-maintains-lowest-crs-cut-off-score-of-2018-0510627.html#gs.wWE=VPM
Looking at the graphics, 2018 is behind 2017 (number of ITAs issued, number of draws...) So, I hang on to the believe that soon they may start increasing the number of ITAs per darw (maybe 3750?) and even one back to back...
I am really trying to stay positive hahaha... a very hard thing to do after 89th draw results. LOL
Positive vibes! Maybe if we focus our thoughts about having those bigger draws, we will attract that and CRS mininum may go down again to 430s and 420s.
https://www.cicnews.com/2018/05/new-express-entry-draw-maintains-lowest-crs-cut-off-score-of-2018-0510627.html#gs.wWE=VPM
Looking at the graphics, 2018 is behind 2017 (number of ITAs issued, number of draws...) So, I hang on to the believe that soon they may start increasing the number of ITAs per darw (maybe 3750?) and even one back to back...
I am really trying to stay positive hahaha... a very hard thing to do after 89th draw results. LOL
Positive vibes! Maybe if we focus our thoughts about having those bigger draws, we will attract that and CRS mininum may go down again to 430s and 420s.Hi All,
My score is 441 and I am in the pool from March 24th.
What are the chances?
Also, my points may come down by 10 points after May 26th.
Will my profile gets auto updated with new score?
In case if I get invite and submit my application before May 26, is that valid?
Appreciate any response
My score is 441 and I am in the pool from March 24th.
What are the chances?
Also, my points may come down by 10 points after May 26th.
Will my profile gets auto updated with new score?
In case if I get invite and submit my application before May 26, is that valid?
Appreciate any response
Dang, not the best draw today... was expecting 439. I think as mentioned it must be due to IELTS/OINP effects. I will maintain my prediction of 439 for the next draw.
One positive is CIC keeping to 3500ITA every second Wednesday. I much prefer that, than random draws. I think there is a good chance we'll see increase in ITA's soon if CIC want to meet their targets this year.
My ECA is due for completion next week, so hopefully I can join yall in the pool for the next draw
The US green card lottery gets drawn in a few days time as well. Anybody else waiting on that?
PS: anyone going to do the calcs for new entrants entering the pool like usual?
One positive is CIC keeping to 3500ITA every second Wednesday. I much prefer that, than random draws. I think there is a good chance we'll see increase in ITA's soon if CIC want to meet their targets this year.
My ECA is due for completion next week, so hopefully I can join yall in the pool for the next draw
The US green card lottery gets drawn in a few days time as well. Anybody else waiting on that?
PS: anyone going to do the calcs for new entrants entering the pool like usual?
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:
From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day
From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day
Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day
Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day
Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day
from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day
From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day
From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day
From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day
From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day
From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:196 per day
above 430:220 per day
above 410:246 per day
From April 19th to May 4th
above 440:219 per day
above 430:238 per day
above 410:256 per day
For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161
The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
Also, I'm so sorry guys, in my previous post I had made a mistake in calculations for entrants per day between April 4th to April 19th. I had used the number of ITAs as 3000 instead of 3500 to calculate so the per day number was smaller than it should be. I have made the corrections now. My apologies for the mistake.
From oct 26th to Nov 9th (2017):
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day
From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day
Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day
Dec 18th (2017) to Jan 4th (2018)
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day
Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day
from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day
From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day
From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day
From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day
From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day
From April 4th to April 19th
above 440:196 per day
above 430:220 per day
above 410:246 per day
From April 19th to May 4th
above 440:219 per day
above 430:238 per day
above 410:256 per day
For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:
For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161
The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
Also, I'm so sorry guys, in my previous post I had made a mistake in calculations for entrants per day between April 4th to April 19th. I had used the number of ITAs as 3000 instead of 3500 to calculate so the per day number was smaller than it should be. I have made the corrections now. My apologies for the mistake.
Appreciate your work!
In this draw the number has been over the roof for scores above 440...hoping in future that comes down since waiting at 438 since last December
So assuming that 220 entering the pool
From may 9th to 23rd we will be having around 3300 people with greather than 440 score and assuming 200 with 441 are still left on may 9th..can we expect 441 again on may 23rd..seems like 219 number is a big number..hope its not the same rate this time and score falls to 440 or even 439..guys let's hope the new entrants are around 180 only
Use 14 days not 15 days (since draws typically occur every two weeks). 220 x 14 = 3080ppl.So assuming that 220 entering the pool
From may 9th to 23rd we will be having around 3300 people with greather than 440 score and assuming 200 with 441 are still left on may 9th..can we expect 441 again on may 23rd..seems like 219 number is a big number..hope its not the same rate this time and score falls to 440 or even 439..guys let's hope the new entrants are around 180 only
Also, using 220ppl/day for above 440 is high IMO. Look at the last few draws. I think better to use 200ppl/day for above 440 and 200ppl/day for above 430.