Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[wchaudhry]

Hi guys,

Would like to have an opinion on the following WES assessment my wife received today:

CANADIAN EQUIVALENCY SUMMARY
Completion of a college-level certificate (one year) and bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential: Bachelor of Science
Year: 2014
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Information Systems
Canadian Equivalency: Bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential Authentication: Documents were sent directly by the institution
Credential: Certificate in Business Accounting
Year: 2016
Awarded By: Chartered Institute of Management Accountants
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Accounting
Canadian Equivalency: Completion of a college-level certificate (one year)

I will highly appreciate if someone could please suggest what category does it fall into?

Thank you

 

[JJ_87]

Correct, that is why I calculated total ITAs for federal skilled workers separately and for PNP separately then added them up to get the total ITAs.

Since the other post mentioned an ITA rejection rate of 0.7 and 1.9 immigrants per ITA, 74900 landings require 56315 ITAs.

Similarly 55000 landings from PNP of which I assume 50% through EE. Again I assume rejection at 0.7 and 1.9 immigrants per ITA to arrive at 20676 for PNP ITAs

So that is 56315 ITAs for federal skilled workers and 20676 ITAs for PNP through EE. So together 77000 ITAs.

But again looking at past ITAs it looks like a little less than 300 ITAs per draw is for PNP. If we go with those numbers we will have roughly 6000 to 7000 PNP ITAs this year with 24+ draws. That would mean only about 64000 ITAs for 2018 (56315 fed skilled worker + less than 8000 for PNP). Maybe some one could shed light on how much of the PNPs are expected to go through Express Entry.

Also Ontario will most likely get the largest allocation of the PNPs and I just checked and almost all their programs comes through the ITA route.

I think all PNP programs are ITA based. 600 points if nominated and then ITA.

So basically, EE = Skilled(FSW+FST+CEC) + PNP

If that's the case, in 2017,
EE = 71700+51000 = 122700
ITAs = 86023....Which is ~70% of the immigrant target

Similarly for 2018,
EE = 74900+55000 = 129900
considering 70%, they should give out 90930 ITAs in 2018

BUT, there were only 33782 ITAs in 2016 and 31063 in 2015.

Probably CIC tried to give out less ITAs in 2015 and 2016 and then realized they may not meet targets like this and increased the ITAs in 2017 which resulted in overflowing applications, hence putting them in a difficult situation.

Which is why, they've adopted 2750 as the lucky number to meet their targets. So, i think there won't be 90000+ ITAs this year.

Just speculations, would like to hear more from the rest.

 

[JJ_87]

Hi guys,

Would like to have an opinion on the following WES assessment my wife received today:

CANADIAN EQUIVALENCY SUMMARY
Completion of a college-level certificate (one year) and bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential: Bachelor of Science
Year: 2014
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Information Systems
Canadian Equivalency: Bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential Authentication: Documents were sent directly by the institution
Credential: Certificate in Business Accounting
Year: 2016
Awarded By: Chartered Institute of Management Accountants
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Accounting
Canadian Equivalency: Completion of a college-level certificate (one year)

I will highly appreciate if someone could please suggest what category does it fall into?

Thank you

it should come under "Two or more certificates, diplomas or degrees."
Because one of them is for four years.

Experts please help!

 

[WanderWomanToo]

BUT, there were only 33782 ITAs in 2016 and 31063 in 2015.

Probably CIC tried to give out less ITAs in 2015 and 2016 and then realized they may not meet targets like this and increased the ITAs in 2017 which resulted in overflowing applications, hence putting them in a difficult situation.

Which is why, they've adopted 2750 as the lucky number to meet their targets. So, i think there won't be 90000+ ITAs this year.

Just speculations, would like to hear more from the rest.

They were clearing back logs during 2015 and 2016 draws, hence the low ITAs

 

[jackdawn]

Hi guys,

Would like to have an opinion on the following WES assessment my wife received today:

CANADIAN EQUIVALENCY SUMMARY
Completion of a college-level certificate (one year) and bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential: Bachelor of Science
Year: 2014
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Information Systems
Canadian Equivalency: Bachelor's degree (four years)

Credential Authentication: Documents were sent directly by the institution
Credential: Certificate in Business Accounting
Year: 2016
Awarded By: Chartered Institute of Management Accountants
Status: Recognized Institution
Major/Specialization: Business Accounting
Canadian Equivalency: Completion of a college-level certificate (one year)

I will highly appreciate if someone could please suggest what category does it fall into?

Thank you

Should be two or more post secondary

 

[jackdawn]

Just got back to Toronto after a brief visit with my husband. Lots of snuggles, lol. But it appears no draw. Haven't caught up with the thread yet. Usually I make myself go all the way through, but class will start shortly, so I cheated.

Yup it was a damp squib

Hope u r liking ur time at college. Making new friends and contacts??

Good luck

 

[Midnight Blessing]

can anyone predict what cic is trying to do starting from this year??????

at first they declared multi year immigration quotas with an increase of the previous year quota to a new record breaking immigration quotas.

then they sealed the draw size to 2750 *

I think all PNP programs are ITA based. 600 points if nominated and then ITA.

So basically, EE = Skilled(FSW+FST+CEC) + PNP

If that's the case, in 2017,
EE = 71700+51000 = 122700
ITAs = 86023....Which is ~70% of the immigrant target

Similarly for 2018,
EE = 74900+55000 = 129900
considering 70%, they should give out 90930 ITAs in 2018

BUT, there were only 33782 ITAs in 2016 and 31063 in 2015.

Probably CIC tried to give out less ITAs in 2015 and 2016 and then realized they may not meet targets like this and increased the ITAs in 2017 which resulted in overflowing applications, hence putting them in a difficult situation.

Which is why, they've adopted 2750 as the lucky number to meet their targets. So, i think there won't be 90000+ ITAs this year.

Just speculations, would like to hear more from the rest.

Sorry @JJ_87 , I beg to differ. CIC had given out very less ITA's in 2015-16 and one of the biggest reason is because they had huge back log on paper based applications for the year prior to those. Moreover, if you think that they have given more ITA's in 2017 which is causing them backlog again which being the reason for them to cut their drawing size to 2750 in 2018 then I guess that's not also logical cause they have been able to clear their applications super fast in 2017 even people got their PPR after AOR within 14 days.

Now coming down to the 2750 drawing size, it is kind of puzzling considering that they have increased their quotas for the 2018 year. Also, there has been some considerable ITA wastage due to many people overthrowing/declining their invitations in 2017. We really can't come to a conclusion with just one draw of the year, rather we need to see at least till mid February before we know the real story behind that magical 2750 & also about what CIC plan to do in 2018, more coherently.

 

[JJ_87]

can anyone predict what cic is trying to do starting from this year??????

at first they declared multi year immigration quotas with an increase of the previous year quota to a new record breaking immigration quotas.

then they sealed the draw size to 2750 *



Sorry @JJ_87 , I beg to differ. CIC had given out very less ITA's in 2015-16 and one of the biggest reason is because they had huge back log on paper based applications for the year prior to those. Moreover, if you think that they have given more ITA's in 2017 which is causing them backlog again which being the reason for them to cut their drawing size to 2750 in 2018 then I guess that's not also logical cause they have been able to clear their applications super fast in 2017 even people got their PPR after AOR within 14 days.

Now coming down to the 2750 drawing size, it is kind of puzzling considering that they have increased their quotas for the 2018 year. Also, there has been some considerable ITA wastage due to many people overthrowing/declining their invitations in 2017. We really can't come to a conclusion with just one draw of the year, rather we need to see at least till mid February before we know the real story behind that magical 2750 & also about what CIC plan to do in 2018, more coherently.

Hmm...makes sense!

 

[vensak]

I think all PNP programs are ITA based. 600 points if nominated and then ITA.

So basically, EE = Skilled(FSW+FST+CEC) + PNP

If that's the case, in 2017,
EE = 71700+51000 = 122700
ITAs = 86023....Which is ~70% of the immigrant target

Similarly for 2018,
EE = 74900+55000 = 129900
considering 70%, they should give out 90930 ITAs in 2018

BUT, there were only 33782 ITAs in 2016 and 31063 in 2015.

Probably CIC tried to give out less ITAs in 2015 and 2016 and then realized they may not meet targets like this and increased the ITAs in 2017 which resulted in overflowing applications, hence putting them in a difficult situation.

Which is why, they've adopted 2750 as the lucky number to meet their targets. So, i think there won't be 90000+ ITAs this year.

Just speculations, would like to hear more from the rest.

Sorry your calculation is wrong.

Not all PNP are EE type. Most of them are still paper based. Only 5 provinces use EE type of PNP. At the best app. 1/3 of all PNP will use EE.
Which is app. 94k of immigrants using PNP at max. for 2018
Family size for EE is app. 1.9
That is somewhere app. 49k applications. and if you will be generous with wasted ITA (declined, expired, cancelled, rejected) and set it up for 40%, you will get 70k ITA needed at max.
That is 2750 ITA for 26 regular draws.
Which is what is happening now.
So the 2750 will go nowhere anytime soon.

 

[JJ_87]

Sorry your calculation is wrong.

Not all PNP are EE type. Most of them are still paper based. Only 5 provinces use EE type of PNP. At the best app. 1/3 of all PNP will use EE.
Which is app. 94k of immigrants using PNP at max. for 2018
Family size for EE is app. 1.9
That is somewhere app. 49k applications. and if you will be generous with wasted ITA (declined, expired, cancelled, rejected) and set it up for 40%, you will get 70k ITA needed at max.
That is 2750 ITA for 26 regular draws.
Which is what is happening now.
So the 2750 will go nowhere anytime soon.

I think all provinces except Quebec are EE type, granting 600 points if nominated, thus giving you an ITA in the next draw.

http://www.canadaexpressentry.org/provincial-nominee-program/

Apologies if I'm wrong!

 

[vensak]

I think all provinces except Quebec are EE type, granting 600 points if nominated, thus giving you an ITA in the next draw.

http://www.canadaexpressentry.org/provincial-nominee-program/

Apologies if I'm wrong!

No it is not the case.
Only those that have it explicitly written.
PEI, Manitoba, Alberta, New Foundland and Labrador, Yukon and Northern territories do not have any PNP program that is aligned with EE.
And even those that have, some of their programs do not use EE.
Saskatchewan has also paper based application, Master and PHD graduates PNP in Ontario are also paper based applications. So are job offer driven.
same thing for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and also for British Colombia.

If you have paper based PNP you cannot use it for EE.

Just for info. in 2015 only app. 16% of all PNP were aligned with EE.

 

[JJ_87]

No it is not the case.
Only those that have it explicitly written.
PEI, Manitoba, Alberta, New Foundland and Labrador, Yukon and Northern territories do not have any PNP program that is aligned with EE.
And even those that have, some of their programs do not use EE.
Saskatchewan has also paper based application, Master and PHD graduates PNP in Ontario are also paper based applications. So are job offer driven.
same thing for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and also for British Colombia.

If you have paper based PNP you cannot use it for EE.

Just for info. in 2015 only app. 16% of all PNP were aligned with EE.

Interesting!!!...Thanks for the info!

So, having increased all quotas for this year, we may only get to see 70k ITAs for 2018, compared to 2017 where the targets were lesser but somehow the ITAs shot to 85k.

Just confused!

 

[tjsecondtry]

First of all you all are too pessimistic, it is annoying.
Now to fact.

FSWP, FSTP, CEC minimum target is 72700
PNP minimum target is 53000. (I know each province have different programs but let's assume they allocate 30% to express entry nominees that is 15900)

What you all fail to understand is all PNP for economic programs comes to the pool too and receive ITA, so we are going by the minimum that is 88600 ITAs
Assuming two weeks between draws, that is 26 draws and 3400 per draw.

So there have to be a reason for the low number of ITA and my opinion is straightforward.

ITAs are low cos PNP for 2018 are not yet in full throttle. If you notice PNP in the last few draws have been below 400, so I believe once PNPs start coming in, ITAs will increase.

Stop the pessimistic calculation.

you are leaving out the fact that these are not number of ITAs. this is number of people. I've heard the average is about 1.9 people per ITA. however, the rejection rate on ITAs has been high. I doubt it remained at 40%, but 25% wouldn't surprise me.

the factor on number per draw is employment levels at CIC. if you look at the 3 year plan, it makes sense that they will hire throughout the year and gradually increase the number of ITAs until they have enough employees to cover next year's target.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Also Ontario will most likely get the largest allocation of the PNPs and I just checked and almost all their programs comes through the ITA route.

actually, it did not look like ontario received substantially more from data i linked to in last roh. if i have time, i'll try to find it.

 

[tjsecondtry]

Yup it was a damp squib

Hope u r liking ur time at college. Making new friends and contacts??

Good luck

definitely enjoying school. lots of new contacts. many students, so i'll need to see if any become friends.