Ray of Hope - 77th Draw

[Emnafrancks]

Copied from Kubeir Kamal's Facebook page

So this was the eagerly awaited news release of the new targets for 2018 and beyond. I have attached several links below of the same release.

Though there was a lot of expectations with regards to increase in the targets and quotas, with a mere 3% increase on YoY, this sure is a downer.
The breakdown of targets under different economic streams hasnt changed much either.

This is how I see it affect the future draw sizes and CRS. (disclaimer:- this is pure speculation and my personal opinion)

1. The good news is that federal targets are not fixed to a number. Its more of a flexible range. So that CIC does not have to stop once it reaches the targets. For the year 2018 the range is from 290k-330k, which is a fair range of 40k.

2. Economic class targets hover in the range of 180K which is also a mere 3% increase on the 2017 figures.

3. The more important targets that concerns the people on this group is PNP Quotas, which is now at 55k (increase of 4000) and Federal High skilled - 74900 (vs 73500 last year).

4. This is how I think it will pan out - with total PNP+Federal = 130k target for landed immigrants for the year 2018, it roughly means 59k successfully processed ITAs (Each ITA = 2.23 landed immigrant).
With the decline/rejection average rate of 30-34% (as per 2017 April declared figures by CIC) IRCC will have to issue roughly 86000-88000 ITAs to meet this target.

5. If we assume that IRCC will conduct 24-28 FSW draws in a year with an average 2.2 draws a month, then the average ITA size per draw must be in the range of 3300-3500.

6. This draw size will effectively bring the CRS down to low 420s within the span of 3-4 draws as that will flush out the collected applicants in the pool.

7. However since the number of new applicants entering the pool with scores over 420 average between 220-240 per day. This means that in the near future it may not look like the CRS will drop lower than 420 if the draw sizes remain at 3300-3500 figures. It has happened before and there is nothing to stop it from happening the CRS to drop to phenomenal low levels of 410s, but for that to happen the ITA draw size has to go up to 3800-3900 levels as was noticed in the month of April-May 2017.

Synopsis - Overall, the fact that the immigration targets have been announced with progressive increase upto the year 2020 is a healthy sign. This will help all provinces and IRCC to be more prepared to handle the increase in applications and hence we can see consistent faster application processing from AOR-PPR.
In the immediate short term, I #hope to see that IRCC adopts the 2018 targets as soon as possible, as technically all the applications processed henceforth will count towards the landed immigrants only in the year 2018. This increased ITA size will see and immediate drop in CRS and will bring a much needed relief to all those applicants who are stuck in the 420-433 bracket.

Good luck to all aspiring immigrants, ""May the odds be ever in your favour"".

#foreverhopeful #askKubeir

https://news.vice.com/story/canada-will-bring-in-nearly-one-million-new-immigrants-by-2020

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-to-admit-340-000-immigrants-a-year-by-2020-1.3659281

https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2017/11/01/canadian-government-to-raise-annual-immigrant-intake-by-13-by-2020.html

and finally, the breakdown of the targets on IRCC website
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2017-11-01.asp

 

[Tayyab29]

I am at 475. Had received ita on sep 6 but had to decline as i came across alot of errors in the EOI while making the final application.

Was frustrated last night after seeing the draw.

Hey. What is EOI? and what kind of mistakes? Can they not Ignore minor mistakes?

 

[Tayyab29]

Yes its normal. NPCC issues a certificate with a date of creation on it. The certificate is valid for the period before this date.

Hope that helps

Best of luck

Any Idea about other countries? Do they write the dates? I am in Saudi Arabia and here they also do not write dates. Just the date of issue.

 

[ishq74]

Copied from Kubeir Kamal's Facebook page

So this was the eagerly awaited news release of the new targets for 2018 and beyond. I have attached several links below of the same release.

Though there was a lot of expectations with regards to increase in the targets and quotas, with a mere 3% increase on YoY, this sure is a downer.
The breakdown of targets under different economic streams hasnt changed much either.

This is how I see it affect the future draw sizes and CRS. (disclaimer:- this is pure speculation and my personal opinion)

1. The good news is that federal targets are not fixed to a number. Its more of a flexible range. So that CIC does not have to stop once it reaches the targets. For the year 2018 the range is from 290k-330k, which is a fair range of 40k.

2. Economic class targets hover in the range of 180K which is also a mere 3% increase on the 2017 figures.

3. The more important targets that concerns the people on this group is PNP Quotas, which is now at 55k (increase of 4000) and Federal High skilled - 74900 (vs 73500 last year).

4. This is how I think it will pan out - with total PNP+Federal = 130k target for landed immigrants for the year 2018, it roughly means 59k successfully processed ITAs (Each ITA = 2.23 landed immigrant).
With the decline/rejection average rate of 30-34% (as per 2017 April declared figures by CIC) IRCC will have to issue roughly 86000-88000 ITAs to meet this target.

5. If we assume that IRCC will conduct 24-28 FSW draws in a year with an average 2.2 draws a month, then the average ITA size per draw must be in the range of 3300-3500.

6. This draw size will effectively bring the CRS down to low 420s within the span of 3-4 draws as that will flush out the collected applicants in the pool.

7. However since the number of new applicants entering the pool with scores over 420 average between 220-240 per day. This means that in the near future it may not look like the CRS will drop lower than 420 if the draw sizes remain at 3300-3500 figures. It has happened before and there is nothing to stop it from happening the CRS to drop to phenomenal low levels of 410s, but for that to happen the ITA draw size has to go up to 3800-3900 levels as was noticed in the month of April-May 2017.

Synopsis - Overall, the fact that the immigration targets have been announced with progressive increase upto the year 2020 is a healthy sign. This will help all provinces and IRCC to be more prepared to handle the increase in applications and hence we can see consistent faster application processing from AOR-PPR.
In the immediate short term, I #hope to see that IRCC adopts the 2018 targets as soon as possible, as technically all the applications processed henceforth will count towards the landed immigrants only in the year 2018. This increased ITA size will see and immediate drop in CRS and will bring a much needed relief to all those applicants who are stuck in the 420-433 bracket.

Good luck to all aspiring immigrants, ""May the odds be ever in your favour"".

#foreverhopeful #askKubeir

https://news.vice.com/story/canada-will-bring-in-nearly-one-million-new-immigrants-by-2020

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-to-admit-340-000-immigrants-a-year-by-2020-1.3659281

https://www.thestar.com/news/immigration/2017/11/01/canadian-government-to-raise-annual-immigrant-intake-by-13-by-2020.html

and finally, the breakdown of the targets on IRCC website
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2017-11-01.asp

One thing I see is common about people writing regarding the pool, they think applicants only entering the pool; just like this writer wrote on face book that "new applicants entering the pool with scores over 420 average between 220-240 per day". They always fail to understand Express Entry pool is a dynamic pool, new people entering everyday as well as people leaving the pool or their Crs score getting changed every day (i.e profile expire, age increase, ielts expire, profile withdrawal etc.) If you closely monitor two consecutive pre-draw figures published by IRCC then you should understand the nature of this Express Entry pool. Have a look at the number of candidates in 401-410 range between 12 October figures and 26 October figures. It is 4,997 and 5070 respectively. merely 73 people increased in two weeks. Same goes for the numbers of 411-420 range and 421-430 range; very little change! If it was 220-240 people only entering but not leaving then the candidate numbers should have been huge by now since June because non of them from this range was invited.

I was hoping for this multi year plan and thankfully we got it. As we know around 30% ITAs are wasted on average and they have to meet this new immigration target by 2020 so IRCC must send high number of ITAs in next two years continuously to nullify the ITA wastage and rejection numbers before the target end date. They may get slow down in the second half of the last year of the target if they come close the the 3 year target but first two years it will be large draw size every time. In other words their won't be any slowing down during the second half of 2018 and 2019 like this year which is a great news for everybody.
Any number between 3200 to 4000 ITAs per draw is enough to bring the CRS cutoff down to 400 within June 2018. I won't be surprised if the CRS score comes down to 350 or even below by 2020.

 

[Tarakeshwar]

I have also got another query in relation to the Job market in Canada... Does the IT market have a parallel/good demand in line with number of Immigrants absorbed every year... I'm into IT and my role is Business analysis. Any advise from senior members in this regard is highly appreciated.

we are both on the same page buddy.. can you message me? somehow when I visit your profile, I am unable to message you

 

[Thay]

To all people here, just wait for a draw and see what happens.

Quick question, when you are submitting the documents for EE i.e. letter of employment or PCC it is all in your native language. I am looking for information on CIC website who can translate these documents to be valid, any clue?

 

[Nabs17]

Hello Everyone,

I have been a silent observer so-far and can’t thank you enough for spreading the optimism.

I think that we would never be able to understand everything that influences the size of draw. Only predictable bit, as of now, is the range-bound cut-off ( ~435), if the size of draw remains @ 2700 and with a frequency of once every fortnight. I am sorry to appear as trying to dampen the spirit, however following is my rationale for thinking so and I, appreciatively, seek responses from all of you to alter my POV, as I too want the cut-off to drop to 400-410 asap.

It takes 8-9 months to get a PR after receipt /acceptance of ITA - 3 months for application’s submission and 6 months for processing. If one adds another 4-6 months, afterwards, for the first landing, we have a gestation period of 12-15 months before an ITA contributes towards migration quota. Simply, an ITAs issued Sep’17 onwards would contribute mainly towards migration target of 2019. Therefore, its safe to assume that -

• ITAs for 2018 quotas have been issued already , by/before Sep'17
• Draw sizes during Q4’17 to Q3’18 will be designed with a view to achieve immigration targets of 2019

The quota for 2019 through Express Entry is 142400 landings (81400:FHS + 61000NP = 142400).

Assuming that 90% of ITAs are accepted by candidates, 90% of those applications are cleared by Canada government and each successful application equals 2.5 landings, the numbers of ITAs to be issued from Oct’17-Sep’18 should be in ballpark of 70K. And, if the frequency remains once per fortnight, average draw size would remain range bound i.e. 2500-2600.

Other Scenario (2) - If I were to relax my assumptions as 85%, 85% & 2.2 , the average draw size comes to 3200.

Other Scenario (2) - At assumptions of 80%, 80% & 2.2 , the average draw size could be 3600.

Question :- Does anyone have the data / understanding about what % of ITAs are accepted, what % of application get selected and average number of landings / PR?

Alternately, I might be missing something and these estimates reflect just my poor understanding. Would appreciate hearing your views and having a clearer opinion on what to expect in coming months.

Thanks,

Interesting post. Though your logic makes sense, i still feel that there is more to it.
How can IRCC keep issuing ITAs against a target that they are unaware of. For instance 2018 target was announced yesterday and as per your statement their ITAs were issued Sep16 to Aug 17. I guess we need to figure out the missing link.

As to your question, please find details below.


Approval rate
Interestingly, the IRCC presentation also provides information on what portion of ITAs issued end up in an application being submitted and approved.

In the first two years of Express Entry, around 47,000 applications for permanent residency were received. About 85 percent of invitations result in an application, and of the complete applications that make it to the final decision stage, the approval rate is 97 percent. Consequently, in the majority of cases the issuance of an ITA results in the invitee being approved to become a permanent resident of Canada.

Source:

https://www.cicnews.com/2017/09/express-entry-reforms-in-2016-led-to-more-candidates-invited-based-on-human-capital-factors-099539.html#gs.g7T25Aw


Hope to crack CICs logic some day

Best of luck.

 

[didouette]

I think IRCC calendar year starts around May N-1 and ends in April N. This suggests a pre-admission timeline of 7/8 months. Also, with this logic they should be able to adjust their intakes via ITAs accordingly if say the country immigration plan changes in unadvertidly... So to sum up, more ITAs are coming in starting from late November

 

[Nabs17]

Any Idea about other countries? Do they write the dates? I am in Saudi Arabia and here they also do not write dates. Just the date of issue.

No idea about Saudi Arabia, but i know Italy and Turkey also give the certificate issuing date only ( similar to uk). Which means that they are valid for all periods prior to that day.
Best of luck

 

[Nabs17]

Thank you Nabs17, but certificate valid before the date on it?

Yes. If the certificate is issued today, it covers till yesterday.
Best of luck

 

[Nabs17]

To all people here, just wait for a draw and see what happens.

Quick question, when you are submitting the documents for EE i.e. letter of employment or PCC it is all in your native language. I am looking for information on CIC website who can translate these documents to be valid, any clue?

Read the translation section.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/tools/perm/express/intake-complete.asp

Best of luck.

 

[Msolanki]

Can anybody tell whether last year's quota is fully fulfilled???

 

[darkmago]

hey guys, I have 459, what do you think is my chance to get ITA on next draw?.

 

[Thay]

hey guys, I have 459, what do you think is my chance to get ITA on next draw?.

I bet you did your research and know by now that your chances are about 10%

 

[qwerty69]

OMG the HCP was re-opened. Go @trumprefugee

http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNPNEW.html