Ray of Hope - 77th Draw

[Aspirant125]

Hello Everyone,

I have been a silent observer so-far and can’t thank you enough for spreading the optimism.

I think that we would never be able to understand everything that influences the size of draw. Only predictable bit, as of now, is the range-bound cut-off ( ~435), if the size of draw remains @ 2700 and with a frequency of once every fortnight. I am sorry to appear as trying to dampen the spirit, however following is my rationale for thinking so and I, appreciatively, seek responses from all of you to alter my POV, as I too want the cut-off to drop to 400-410 asap.

It takes 8-9 months to get a PR after receipt /acceptance of ITA - 3 months for application’s submission and 6 months for processing. If one adds another 4-6 months, afterwards, for the first landing, we have a gestation period of 12-15 months before an ITA contributes towards migration quota. Simply, an ITAs issued Sep’17 onwards would contribute mainly towards migration target of 2019. Therefore, its safe to assume that -

• ITAs for 2018 quotas have been issued already , by/before Sep'17
• Draw sizes during Q4’17 to Q3’18 will be designed with a view to achieve immigration targets of 2019

The quota for 2019 through Express Entry is 142400 landings (81400:FHS + 61000NP = 142400).

Assuming that 90% of ITAs are accepted by candidates, 90% of those applications are cleared by Canada government and each successful application equals 2.5 landings, the numbers of ITAs to be issued from Oct’17-Sep’18 should be in ballpark of 70K. And, if the frequency remains once per fortnight, average draw size would remain range bound i.e. 2500-2600.

Other Scenario (2) - If I were to relax my assumptions as 85%, 85% & 2.2 , the average draw size comes to 3200.

Other Scenario (2) - At assumptions of 80%, 80% & 2.2 , the average draw size could be 3600.

Question :- Does anyone have the data / understanding about what % of ITAs are accepted, what % of application get selected and average number of landings / PR?

Alternately, I might be missing something and these estimates reflect just my poor understanding. Would appreciate hearing your views and having a clearer opinion on what to expect in coming months.

Thanks,

 

[TanakaM]

Hi guys,

Listening to the minister last night was very refreshing. He was very warm and welcoming. He made it clear that the country needs immigrants in order to succeed and that it was their priority to ensure that we settle well in the Canadian society. If he is a true reflection of the Canadian government we definitely won’t regret making this move. I am 100% convinced.

Although the increase in the target for 2018 is not big it is still significant and only means that more people will have a chance to turn their dream into a reality, as score can only go down from where they are now.

My advice to all those waiting for an ITA - If there is any way you can improve your score go for it. Retake IELTS, get your spouse to take or retake IELTS, enroll for a post-grade qualification, gain more work experience etc. Even if it takes a year, DO IT, it may be worth 25, 50, or even more points. Remember, we are not in a race to Canada, therefore, its ok to improve your score with 2018 or even 2019 in mind. Don't be discouraged as there has never been a better time to make this move.

Wish you all the best guys.

#staypositive

 

[TanakaM]

Hello Everyone,

I have been a silent observer so-far and can’t thank you enough for spreading the optimism.

I think that we would never be able to understand everything that influences the size of draw. Only predictable bit, as of now, is the range-bound cut-off ( ~435), if the size of draw remains @ 2700 and with a frequency of once every fortnight. I am sorry to appear as trying to dampen the spirit, however following is my rationale for thinking so and I, appreciatively, seek responses from all of you to alter my POV, as I too want the cut-off to drop to 400-410 asap.

It takes 8-9 months to get a PR after receipt /acceptance of ITA - 3 months for application’s submission and 6 months for processing. If one adds another 4-6 months, afterwards, for the first landing, we have a gestation period of 12-15 months before an ITA contributes towards migration quota. Simply, an ITAs issued Sep’17 onwards would contribute mainly towards migration target of 2019. Therefore, its safe to assume that -

• ITAs for 2018 quotas have been issued already , by/before Sep'17
• Draw sizes during Q4’17 to Q3’18 will be designed with a view to achieve immigration targets of 2019

The quota for 2019 through Express Entry is 142400 landings (81400:FHS + 61000NP = 142400).

Assuming that 90% of ITAs are accepted by candidates, 90% of those applications are cleared by Canada government and each successful application equals 2.5 landings, the numbers of ITAs to be issued from Oct’17-Sep’18 should be in ballpark of 70K. And, if the frequency remains once per fortnight, average draw size would remain range bound i.e. 2500-2600.

Other Scenario (2) - If I were to relax my assumptions as 85%, 85% & 2.2 , the average draw size comes to 3200.

Other Scenario (2) - At assumptions of 80%, 80% & 2.2 , the average draw size could be 3600.

Question :- Does anyone have the data / understanding about what % of ITAs are accepted, what % of application get selected and average number of landings / PR?

Alternately, I might be missing something and these estimates reflect just my poor understanding. Would appreciate hearing your views and having a clearer opinion on what to expect in coming months.

Thanks,

Hi,

Thanks for breaking the silence and taking the time to share your thoughts.

This is a good way of looking at it, very interesting.

I think trends will mirror last year's trends. So a big ITA drive for the first 6-7 months, then a steady rate for the rest of the year.

 

[rivington24]

Any hope on next Draw # 77 ,mine is 436 , as candidates in the pool is increasing?

 

[harman_778]

There is hope for you even if the Draw size increases to 3000 for nov 8th

 

[Tan29]

Any chance of a 423 score anytime soon?

 

[kingofpsg]

sorry guys im one of the newbies in the group... I look at all these positive comments above and I really hope the score comes down to 420's...

Im at 429.. Is there any chance of getting ITA before March 2018 friends?

 

[kingofpsg]

I have also got another query in relation to the Job market in Canada... Does the IT market have a parallel/good demand in line with number of Immigrants absorbed every year... I'm into IT and my role is Business analysis. Any advise from senior members in this regard is highly appreciated.

 

[Aspirant125]

Hi,

Thanks for breaking the silence and taking the time to share your thoughts.

This is a good way of looking at it, very interesting.

I think trends will mirror last year's trends. So a big ITA drive for the first 6-7 months, then a steady rate for the rest of the year.

Last year, they had significantly increased the target for 2017, along with an enhanced capacity to process the applications within 6 months of AOR. It might have led to the unprecedented spur in ITAs - for optimal utilization of capacity till they achieved a steady state and of-course to meet the targets of 2017.

The minister also talked about the conscious need to balance inflow of immigrants with government's capability to help them settle.

Somehow, it makes me afraid that they can continue with a steady rate of ~2700 ITA per fortnight for safely achieving their 2018-19 quotas. They have already issued 76K ITAs this year and most of these people will land in 2018, making their 2018 targets easily attainable.

Would you or any one be able to guide me towards source of information about acceptance rate of ITAs, % of applications which get a PR , average size of each landing etc?

I so badly wish for a bigger draw-size during H1'18 but am not able to convince self about it's likelihood !!! Of-course, it's a possibility if authorities think that issuing ITAs earlier in the year would support them better within 2019 targets.

# Hope Remains, Always#

 

[andieangel]

Last year, they had significantly increased the target for 2017, along with an enhanced capacity to process the applications within 6 months of AOR. It might have led to the unprecedented spur in ITAs - for optimal utilization of capacity till they achieved a steady state and of-course to meet the targets of 2017.

The minister also talked about the conscious need to balance inflow of immigrants with government's capability to help them settle.

Somehow, it makes me afraid that they can continue with a steady rate of ~2700 ITA per fortnight for safely achieving their 2018-19 quotas. They have already issued 76K ITAs this year and most of these people will land in 2018, making their 2018 targets easily attainable.

Would you or any one be able to guide me towards source of information about acceptance rate of ITAs, % of applications which get a PR , average size of each landing etc?

I so badly wish for a bigger draw-size during H1'18 but am not able to convince self about it's likelihood !!! Of-course, it's a possibility if authorities think that issuing ITAs earlier in the year would support them better within 2019 targets.

# Hope Remains, Always#

I have the same fear, if this happens CRS will not drop significantly. Let’s keep our hope alive and keep believing!

 

[Karnesh]

sorry guys im one of the newbies in the group... I look at all these positive comments above and I really hope the score comes down to 420's...

Im at 429.. Is there any chance of getting ITA before March 2018 friends?

Why March, you'll get it before 31st December. Best wishes.

 

[Emnafrancks]

My wife's UK pcc doesn't state her period of residence in the UK. Is this normal?

UK PCC's only have date of creation. Therefore any stay being checked should be for period on / before the creation date.

 

[Emnafrancks]

Andie, Abhishek, lala.. waiting @ 433
I can't bear this pain
Plz giv me hope

Relax. Your ITA is coming max 2-3 more draws this year

 

[sysadmin141]

Yes its normal. NPCC issues a certificate with a date of creation on it. The certificate is valid for the period before this date.

Hope that helps

Best of luck

Thank you Nabs17, but certificate valid before the date on it?

 

[Chintan2711]

I am at 475. Had received ita on sep 6 but had to decline as i came across alot of errors in the EOI while making the final application.

Was frustrated last night after seeing the draw.