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Ray of Hope - 71st Draw!

W

Waqasalibabar

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May 31, 2017
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qwerty69

qwerty69

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Jul 4, 2017
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Ok guys, I'll come with the "bad" news....

It seems that ~3,000 ITAs per draw is the new target for now, and this isn't good. I had projected 431 +/-3 with 3,200 ITAs. Here are a couple points:
  • While overall there's a reduction in the rate of new profiles, the rate for new profiles over 430 is increasing, with an unexpected increase in the range of 431-440 (the rate here doubled).
  • The range over 600 increased a bit, but this is expected as more people are taking the PNP route.
  • The rate of new profiles for all ranges under 430 decreased, which is good, but doesn't help the score.
But the bad thing is the 3,000 ITAs. With 3,200 we were barely over the minimum number of ITAs needed to keep a slow decrease of the score over the next few months, but 3,000 isn't enough. We have on average more than 215 new profiles per day over 430, and that will consume the 3,000 ITAs every two weeks. If the draws keep happening every two weeks and the number of ITAs is 3,000 or less, the score won't go below 430.

So here are the projections with 3,000 ITAs:
  • August 30: ~3000 ITAs - 428 +/-1
  • September 6: ~3000 ITAs - 436 +/- 2
  • September 13: ~3000 ITAs - 445 +/-4
Sadly, we need at least one of these things to happen to lower the score:
  • A reduction in the rate of new profiles over 430.
  • An increase in the number of ITAs per draw, over 3200 at least.
  • Back to back draws.
The first one doesn't help too much in the short term, but #2 and #3 can lower the score quickly.

If you have a NOI from Ontario, my suggestion is that you take that route when the stream re-opens. At the moment (under actual circumstances), is the best route.
 
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ivancabrer

ivancabrer

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qwerty69 said:
Ok guys, I'll come with the "bad" news....

It seems that ~3,000 ITAs per draw is the new target for now, and this isn't good. I had projected 431 +/-3 with 3,200 ITAs. Here are a couple points:
  • While overall there's a reduction in the rate of new profiles, the rate for new profiles over 430 is increasing, with an unexpected increase in the range of 431-440 (the rate here doubled).
  • The range over 600 increased a bit, but this is expected as more people are taking the PNP route.
  • The rate of new profiles for all ranges under 430 decreased, which is good, but doesn't help the score.
But the bad thing is the 3,000 ITAs. With 3,200 we were barely over the minimum number of ITAs needed to keep a slow decrease of the score over the next few months, but 3,000 isn't enough. We have on average more than 215 new profiles per day over 430, and that will consume the 3,000 ITAs every two weeks. If the draws keep happening every two weeks and the number of ITAs is 3,000 or less, the score won't go below 430.

So here are the projections with 3,000 ITAs:
  • August 30: ~3000 ITAs - 428 +/-1
  • September 6: ~3000 ITAs - 436 +/- 2
  • September 13: ~3000 ITAs - 445 +/-4
Sadly, we need at least one of these things to happen to lower the score:
  • A reduction in the rate of new profiles over 430.
  • An increase in the number of ITAs per draw, over 3200 at least.
  • Back to back draws.
The first one doesn't help too much in the short term, but #2 and #3 can lower the score quickly.

If you have a NOI from Ontario, my suggestion is that you take that route when the stream re-opens. At the moment (under actual circumstances), is the best route.
Click to expand...
Haven't got myself to calculate projections again, it makes me so anxious.
But I agree with your points.

And, because this is a RoH thread, we just need to know what to hope for.
This time, we need to wish for the ITAs to be closer to 4,000 once again.
If 300k is indeed the baseline for inmigration, then this decreased number of ITAs must be temporal. It doesn't make sense to me to invite such a large number of people some months, just lower the invitations a 20% afterwards.

Anyways, come on people, new thread, new hopes.

I always advice to do everything you can to raise your CRS. Maybe this could be your chance to learn french, maybe the ones who haven't maxed out their IELTS could do so. Be creative and find ways for you to get more chances to get to your goal and get this golden ticket, I mean, this golden ITA.
 
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Kakkarot

Kakkarot

Full Member
Jul 29, 2017
47
83
India
There were two close dated ielts slots which caused a major rise in the scores above 430's level, the next available ielts slot is on 9th september so if a draw happens after two weeks there might be 4 or 5 points drop
 
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