Ray of Hope - 69th Draw

[lino82]

Irrelevant to everyone else, but sharing anyhow.

I think I'm one letter of explanation away from applying for my student visa and 15 months from 30 more points.

not irrelevant to everyone else ....
having friends across the border ready to welcome us all is indeed a welcome news.......

 

[lino82]

the girl at oceans outsourcing good person her name is neha is telling me for this website for helping to english.........so i needs the english improve book and other thing for the testing day due to my have for score 77 for the canada visa

@xibalban ...you'll be great at fiction...going by the way Xibalban1 wrote...but so poor at drama ......you're simply overdoing the grammer....

 

[Er.manoj]

Hey People,
Got the final IELTS result today after re-evaluation. Got the magical number
L=8
R=7
W=7
S=7.5
Guess, I am coming to Canada soon
Expected CRS = 441

 

[hirasalam]

Hey People,
Got the final IELTS result today after re-evaluation. Got the magical number
L=8
R=7
W=7
S=7.5
Guess, I am coming to Canada soon
Expected CRS = 441

Congratulations! what were your scores before re-eval?

 

[kuber101]

Hi does anyone know how to get licensed for SINP, while being outside Canada (engineer)

 

[TanakaM]

Hey guys,

Hope you are all having an amazing weekend. You will soon be enjoying weekends somewhere in Canada.

With faith and hard work, dreams are easily turned into a reality.

#staypositive

 

[TanakaM]

Hey People,
Got the final IELTS result today after re-evaluation. Got the magical number
L=8
R=7
W=7
S=7.5
Guess, I am coming to Canada soon
Expected CRS = 441

Great scores, congrats mate. An ITA is coming your way soon.

All the best

 

[mqamar1994]

Irrelevant to everyone else, but sharing anyhow.

I think I'm one letter of explanation away from applying for my student visa and 15 months from 30 more points.

Wow congrats I feel like going to a uni too

BTW can i ask about your specialization?

 

[Er.manoj]

Congratulations! what were your scores before re-eval?

It was 6.5 in writing module.

 

[PEIlove]

In the ROH - 68 draw, someone commented that CRS will never go below 440 again. She sounded pretty sure. Can anyone remember that post? I wonder where the poster got that information and if it's any good.

it was me who made that comment...no info or inside person..based ON last two months trend u can make this assumption..one draw 3100-3200 ITAs only...but situation can change only if only there are 2 draws per month..then u will see the points go even below 430...I know this thread is ray of hope and being positive and all that..but if i recall correctly clinging on to that ray some people who were at 430-438 have either rejected or didn't act on their OINP ..they thought 440 is the cutoff points gone down from 449 to 440..next one is theirs..so yeah we have to be realistic.

 

[mqamar1994]

@xibalban ...you'll be great at fiction...going by the way Xibalban1 wrote...but so poor at drama ......you're simply overdoing the grammer....

Thats not the real xibalban you mentioned in your post.

He deactivated his account yesterday. The new account is a joke.

 

[PEIlove]

I am already at CLB 9 with score of L-8, R-9, W - 7.5 and S-8.

CLB10 will give you 5 more points

 

[PEIlove]

Hey guys,

I just updated my calculations with today's draw. Some things to consider since the last draw:

• Overall, the rate of new profiles per day decreased by ~5%
• The rate of new profiles over 600 increased by 15%. This was expected, as more people are taking that route after the increase in points (and confirmed by the pause of the OINP due to increased backlog).
• The rate of new profiles for 451-600 considerably decreased. More than 20%.
• Huuuuuge increase in the rate of new profiles for 441-450. The rate was more than double.
• The rate for the rest of the ranges over 400 stayed about the same.

Considering the new rates and the 3,200 ITAs issued, these are my projections:

• If we have a draw on August 9: ~3,200 ITAs @ 432 +/- 1
• If we have a draw on August 16: ~3,200 ITAs @ 436 +/- 2
• If we have a draw on August 23 (oh God, please no): ~3,200 ITAs @ 440 +/- 4

Now considering biweekly draws for the rest of the year with 3,200 ITAs:

• The score should go below 430 on September 13
• The score should go below 420 on December 6. Sorry guys, this is not a linear progression unless some variables change (More ITAs, back to back draws, decreased rate of new profiles over 430).
• The score shouldn't drop below 410 this year. I say this because I expect something similar to what happened this year on 2018, or the variables I mentioned change. If that doesn't happen, the score won't reach 410 for a very long time.

realistic predictions well done..only thing is looking at the current trend,there will be 3 weeks gap in between..so yeah another 440+ cut off! I would say 80% chance of a 23rd august draw 20%16th august and next to zero for 9th..

 

[PEIlove]

its too bad to be stuck at 437 guys..... what you guys think ? do i have any chances to get ita in this month?
Thanks

if it is 9th most definitely,16th slim chance 23rd no way

 

[PEIlove]

My analysis of numbers & prediction of Cutoff is as follows :-

12th july cleaned up all candidates above the score 440 hence if after 3 weeks of draw on aug 2nd we had a cut off of 441 with 3264 ITa's means that these were all new entrants to the pool or candidates who bumped up their scores thru ielts to above 441. So clearly on a weekly basis 1100 new people with scores of 441 & above have got added or are getting added

2ndly , based on the comparatove analysis of people left in the pool in the 430-40 category we find that 28 new people got added or are getting added to this group per day in the last 3 weeks

3rdly , 20 new people got added in the 420-430 category everyday for the last 3 weeks

fourthlyif the draw size for the nxt draw were to be 3200 , which has been the trend recently , then 2200 out of those 3200 would be the new entrants with scores of 441 & above...the balance left would be 1000 candidates.

Lastly , the no of people per point in the 430-440 category after 2 weeks wld be 260 . So if we divide this balance 1000 ITa's by this figure of 260 we arrive at the figure that the score would drop by 3-4 points if the draw happens after 2 weeks

So my calculation & prediction if next draw happens on 16th assuming 3200 ITA's is 437-438

It is about right..but looking at how many ppl are stuck on 437-439 range...there will be tie breaking blood...I think just last 6-7 weeks in this forum I have met/seen around 70-80plus ppl with that CRS so imagine what is the actual number will be..so even if the cutoff goes down to 437-438 atleast half having that CRS wont get ITA