Hey guys,
I just updated my calculations with today's draw. Some things to consider since the last draw:
- Overall, the rate of new profiles per day decreased by ~5%
- The rate of new profiles over 600 increased by 15%. This was expected, as more people are taking that route after the increase in points (and confirmed by the pause of the OINP due to increased backlog).
- The rate of new profiles for 451-600 considerably decreased. More than 20%.
- Huuuuuge increase in the rate of new profiles for 441-450. The rate was more than double.
- The rate for the rest of the ranges over 400 stayed about the same.
Considering the new rates and the 3,200 ITAs issued, these are my projections:
- If we have a draw on August 9: ~3,200 ITAs @ 432 +/- 1
- If we have a draw on August 16: ~3,200 ITAs @ 436 +/- 2
- If we have a draw on August 23 (oh God, please no): ~3,200 ITAs @ 440 +/- 4
Now considering biweekly draws for the rest of the year with 3,200 ITAs:
- The score should go below 430 on September 13
- The score should go below 420 on December 6. Sorry guys, this is not a linear progression unless some variables change (More ITAs, back to back draws, decreased rate of new profiles over 430).
- The score shouldn't drop below 410 this year. I say this because I expect something similar to what happened this year on 2018, or the variables I mentioned change. If that doesn't happen, the score won't reach 410 for a very long time.