Ray of Hope - 69th Draw

[asmachohan]

Do you guys thinks the score will come down next time? CIC is so frustrating the way they conduct draws.

I feel like they are going to stick to 3week draws from now to keep score on 440

I Have the same feeling, my score in 431 and my Ontario letter of interest has already expired.

 

[Aashy09]

Hi guys i really need your help and advice.. i have just received the ita yesterday. I am applying through a lawyer, he sent me the documents list and also the NOC sheet for my experience letters. The thing is she sent NOC 6221 which is technical sales and it is level B, but i am not a technical salesperson i am just export salesperson for glassware which would be NOC 6411 level C.. i am just really confused, if i am level C but she registered for level B the PR will be rejected as level C seems not to be eligible.. it is night right now in canada and i don't want to spend my whole day crying at the office with this unknown factor so maybe you guys can help me out, please, will my PR be rejected ?

Did you check 6211? Sales supervisor

 

[edah]

Did you check 6211? Sales supervisor

Actually I just found out that by "technical sales" it is not necessarily engineer stuff.. they have labeled it as such to differentiate from a shop salesperson and I am eligible for this one as I am working in a manufacturer company and it is a more complexe sales process... just post-ITA panick attacks I guess sorry guys to have bothered you with this..

 

[Aashy09]

Actually I just found out that by "technical sales" it is not necessarily engineer stuff.. they have labeled it as such to differentiate from a shop salesperson and I am eligible for this one as I am working in a manufacturer company and it is a more complexe sales process... just post-ITA panick attacks I guess sorry guys to have bothered you with this..

If your job duties match title isn't an issue.. good luck

 

[shaun75]

Friends,
If you have noticed you can see almost 2,000 people added since 5th July statistics to 27th July statistics between CRS 401-1200. They have invited 3200 people. Currently we have about 10,000 people in the pool between 401 to 1200. If we get 2000 new people in every draw then we have the number decreasing by 1200 from 10,000 people between 401-1200 in each draw. In that rate, CRS cut off may hit 410 within 7 or 8 draws which means in next 3 to 4 months time. lets be Hopeful after all we all are eligible for entering Canada sooner or later

I agree with you . And I can't see any other large event happening like a change to the points system or a massive influx of graduates changing the number profile over the next 5 or 6 months. Possibly ONIP could effect it slightly if they go looking under the 400 CRS line, but even then it's a blip.

So I think that the chicken littles and optimistic people are both looking at the same thing and taking a different view. I look at "7 or 8 draws" as "Yes it's close and I'll have 40+ years living in Canada!" Some other people are in a rush and are upset that they might have to wait a couple of draws for an ITA. It's just a viewpoint on fundamentally the same information and speculation.

 

[dammieh]

Do you guys thinks the score will come down next time? CIC is so frustrating the way they conduct draws.

I feel like they are going to stick to 3week draws from now to keep score on 440

I think so too, I am at 436, without spouse's ECA and IELTS, so we have decided that he needs to write IELTS in September, as there are no more spaces for August. We are not considering ECA, cos it takes too long and points are not that much. IELTS is the only way out for us now.

 

[Onayimi]

You are so close. But if you really want a guarantee, you could try retaking the IELTS. Even a couple extra points could lock you in. Studying will keep your mind occupied too.

Very true. That's exactly the approach I'm taking. I'm hoping to get L9 S8 W9 R9 in my next test. That should up my points from 438 to 447.

 

[ankitptrivedi]

Do you guys thinks the score will come down next time? CIC is so frustrating the way they conduct draws.

I feel like they are going to stick to 3week draws from now to keep score on 440

Yes it's frustrating. It looks like they conduct draws when they have enough numbers above their preferred cut off.

 

[CanadaSweetDreams]

I was waiting to do my medical and get my bank statements after I get an ITA. (I'm at 338)

But I will do them now itself because in a week I have to go to France for a long time.

I hope doing the medical and bank statements now won't be an issue if I receive the ITA in a month or so.

 

[shaun75]

Yes it's frustrating. It looks like they conduct draws when they have enough numbers above their preferred cut off.

I understand what you are saying but fundamentally don't agree. It's boils down to two simple needs:

1) They have published targets which are decided at minister level and feed into lots of other calculations about the economy. These government targets are big and getting bigger.
2) The want to only take the 'best' (defined by their CRS) and go lower only if they have too

If they only waited until they had enough people above a certain level, say 440 then they will not hit their target. So something has to give, either they abandon their target and the knock on effects that has on their other economic plans. Or they continue to lower their CRS cut off. Bear in mind they have never stated that there is a CRS level at which they won't take a candidate. If you can get into the pool then you have a chance.

My bet is that 2) will give and they will continue to lower the CRS. Possibly slowly and it may take until next year to see a sub 410, but the trend is your friend. And the trend is CRS is going down.

 

[andieangel]

I respect and appreciate your great efforts , all your post are relevant
We need this 69 thread to be realistic rather than giving hope for the impossible...
For second half of 2017 there are facts we all should admit
1) there will be long gap between draws
2) number of ITAs will be less per each draw
3) the the next 4 monthd will be dedicated for PNP candidates
As a result the cut off will remain around 440 and not easy to slow down unless too many candidates who received ITAs failed to submitt his/her PR application correctly and this is a valid point really many PR applications rejected

O hello "points will never go below 450, like last year's predictions", you kinda make me laugh!

First, how can you be so SURE in your predictions? Unless you are clairvoyant, you can't say anything with that certainty!

And tell me this, if your math is so solid, how are they going to fill in qouta if they only need applicants above 440? Their qouta for 2018 is even bigger than for 2017, they would need to have 1 draw a year in order to have 80T candidates above 440, and that's if inflow in the pool remains the same!

And also when you mention PNP candidates, do you know that they have their own qouta not touching FSW qouta?

I don't want to argue, I just want to point that your "realistic" approach is not accurate.

And on the final note, we don't hope for unicorns to come and take us to Canada, we hope that everyone who is eligible can get ITA, which is plausible scenario.

 

[andieangel]

for August .September and October There are too many PNP to enter the pool. I think u know this..

And do you know that PNP qouta is 50T and has nothing to do with FSW qouta?

 

[andieangel]

Hey guys,

I just updated my calculations with today's draw. Some things to consider since the last draw:

• Overall, the rate of new profiles per day decreased by ~5%
• The rate of new profiles over 600 increased by 15%. This was expected, as more people are taking that route after the increase in points (and confirmed by the pause of the OINP due to increased backlog).
• The rate of new profiles for 451-600 considerably decreased. More than 20%.
• Huuuuuge increase in the rate of new profiles for 441-450. The rate was more than double.
• The rate for the rest of the ranges over 400 stayed about the same.

Considering the new rates and the 3,200 ITAs issued, these are my projections:

• If we have a draw on August 9: ~3,200 ITAs @ 432 +/- 1
• If we have a draw on August 16: ~3,200 ITAs @ 436 +/- 2
• If we have a draw on August 23 (oh God, please no): ~3,200 ITAs @ 440 +/- 4

Now considering biweekly draws for the rest of the year with 3,200 ITAs:

• The score should go below 430 on September 13
• The score should go below 420 on December 6. Sorry guys, this is not a linear progression unless some variables change (More ITAs, back to back draws, decreased rate of new profiles over 430).
• The score shouldn't drop below 410 this year. I say this because I expect something similar to what happened this year on 2018, or the variables I mentioned change. If that doesn't happen, the score won't reach 410 for a very long time.

Let's agree to disagree!

 

[tjsecondtry]

I have to stay in Toronto initially because my elder brother stays there. Waterloo is the place for my profession though. Hopefully I'll move there sometime later

Sounds like we'll have to plan a Tim Horton's meetup in Toronto!

 

[ankitptrivedi]

I understand what you are saying but fundamentally don't agree. It's boils down to two simple needs:

1) They have published targets which are decided at minister level and feed into lots of other calculations about the economy. These government targets are big and getting bigger.
2) The want to only take the 'best' (defined by their CRS) and go lower only if they have too

If they only waited until they had enough people above a certain level, say 440 then they will not hit their target. So something has to give, either they abandon their target and the knock on effects that has on their other economic plans. Or they continue to lower their CRS cut off. Bear in mind they have never stated that there is a CRS level at which they won't take a candidate. If you can get into the pool then you have a chance.

My bet is that 2) will give and they will continue to lower the CRS. Possibly slowly and it may take until next year to see a sub 410, but the trend is your friend. And the trend is CRS is going down.

If they conduct draws at regular intervals(2 weeks) then that's the strongest indicator that they're willing to meet their targets regardless of where it takes the cut-off. Like the first half, they need to show intention.