Ray of Hope 68th Draw

[Aryaesh]

I guess your averages calculated for some ranges are daily averages and the others are weekly averages.

For example, 601-1200 had 199 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 199/8 = approx 25 which means a weekly average of 175 (25*7). Not sure how you got 30.

Another example, 451-600 had 764 new additions after the June 28th draw till July 6th.
Daily average = 764/8 = approx 96 which means a weekly average of 672 (96*7). Not sure how you got 110.

What is your prediction for 26th July | 19th July assuming there are 3200 ITAs?

 

[pessacanada]

Happy Birthday mate You know how to cover yourself eh! Pretty smart

<<<<<<<<<<
Many thanks mate for wishes, as you know we have to be ready for everything so I did my best to not lose those unfair 5 points establishment for getting older as we celebrate our birthday once a year

 

[KingKurly]

Ha ha ha. You've great friends!

You have no idea how much great they are, lol. The first weekend i was with them after non-drinking days started, we had a graduation party of my then housemate. They finished 20 bottles of wine on top of few bottle of beer to start with, 4 bottles of champagne and after the restaurant, they went to a club and drank more! We were 13 and exclude me, it was 12 drinkers. One time we went to a lounge/club and imagine how much was the bill for drinks only, 4000 euros! yeah that's rite. Great great memories

 

[abhishek_89]

So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,

This is my analysis.


601-1200 -> 199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 -> 764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 -> 1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 -> 1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)

Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.

So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get

601-1200 199
451-600 764
441-450 200
431-440 2070

Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be 430 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs

If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution

601-1200 400
451-600 1400
441-450 500
431-440 2550

Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431

If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be 437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be 436 +/- 1

PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs


Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.

PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.

Also, it is very important to calculate data with their respective dates.

For example, range 431-440 had 1082 profiles on June 22nd, not on June 28th.
So the weekly average is (1576-1082)/2 = 247 and not 494.

 

[Wandering Mind]

You have no idea how much great they are, lol. The first weekend i was with them after non-drinking days started, we had a graduation party of my then housemate. They finished 20 bottles of wine on top of few bottle of beer to start with, 4 bottles of champagne and after the restaurant, they went to a club and drank more! We were 13 and exclude me, it was 12 drinkers. One time we went to a lounge/club and imagine how much was the bill for drinks only, 4000 euros! yeah that's rite. Great great memories

Wow! All the great memories are usually alcohol-related

 

[iamxty]

You have no idea how much great they are, lol. The first weekend i was with them after non-drinking days started, we had a graduation party of my then housemate. They finished 20 bottles of wine on top of few bottle of beer to start with, 4 bottles of champagne and after the restaurant, they went to a club and drank more! We were 13 and exclude me, it was 12 drinkers. One time we went to a lounge/club and imagine how much was the bill for drinks only, 4000 euros! yeah that's rite. Great great memories

Wow! All the great memories are usually alcohol-related

The best is yet to come in our Yukon party!

 

[Wandering Mind]

The best is yet to come in our Yukon party!

Yay! Can't wait!

 

[iamxty]

I don't know! As i keep reading weed is very much acceptable in Canada, so he must be planting weed and stuff hahaha. I still haven't booked IELTS test date yet, but there is still time. I still haven't dedicated as much time in practice as much as i should. Like yesterday i didn't go to work and spent all evening watching Formula 1 and the Wimbledon final. But oh boy, what a Sunday it was. Couldn't have asked more. Next Friday we have a public holiday, so i will take couple of days off before that so i will have 3 days off. So yes i will be sitting for IELTS and thank you for your best wishes

Weed? Now I know why he is always high! Hahaha!

Wow! Busy weekend! Don't forget our refresh party on Wednesday!

 

[hahaHHH]

Hie there, as long as your works are in the category 0, A or B, you can combine all your work and should get a reference letters for each according to the requirement of CIC. Hope your CRS would rise higher so that you will be invited next round, all the best to you!
May everyone here get an ITA soon and we celebrate our parties in Canada in 2018.

PS: It's my birthday today (32) but not sad, in my application I already changed the principal applicant (CRS 416) Hope I invite you guys to my birthday next year in Canada

Happy Birthday !!!!!

 

[iamxty]

Yay! Can't wait!

Can't wait either! Can't wait to see all of you get drunk and celebrate our new life in Canada!

 

[Wandering Mind]

Can't wait either! Can't wait to see all of you get drunk and celebrate our new life in Canada!

It's amazing how it feels that I already know you (and a few others on this thread) without even meeting you!

It'll be a pleasure to finally meet in Canada

 

[SazzadHN]

Can't wait either! Can't wait to see all of you get drunk and celebrate our new life in Canada!

I don't drink but hey, that's not gonna stop me meeting you guys in Canada

 

[TanakaM]

I don't drink but hey, that's not gonna stop me meeting you guys in Canada

lol, those who don't drink are sometimes the craziest. They are born drunk.

 

[lino82]

Like i keep saying. You are a team player

...
ray lacks a bit in shine in the reduced participation from seniors...bring back Xibalban...
& hope ur IELTS prep is going full swing,with test around the corner...
don't leave anything to chance....spend the max time on ur prep......

 

[andieangel]

Don't summon the devil! Hahaha just kidding I miss him too!
Our dear friend @xibalban is ok. He may be here on Wednesday

That's great news!