So after some data mining and applying the principles of Probability and Stochastic processes,
This is my analysis.
601-1200 ->
199 => Average of 30 profiles per week (Rounded up)
451-600 ->
764 => Average of 110 profiles per week (Rounded up)
441-450 ->
1008 => (1008 as on July 6 - 809 as on June 28) means a Average of 200 profiles per week (Rounded up)
431-440 ->
1576 => (1576 as on July 6 - 1082 as on June 28) means a Average of 494 profiles per week (Rounded up)
Keep in mind 440 and above are flushed out.
So as on July 19th (if the trend continues) taking the averages and multiplying by 7 we get
601-1200
199
451-600
764
441-450
200
431-440
2070
Which means atleast 3233 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be
433+/-1
If they issue 3300 ITAs then, Cut off could be
430 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
If, we do not have a draw on July 19 and it gets pushed to July 26 we get the following distribution
601-1200
400
451-600
1400
441-450
500
431-440
2550
Which means atleast 4850 people will have their CRS above 431
If ITA issued are following the current trends of 3200 then, the Cut off can be
437+/-1
If they issue 3500 ITAs then, Cut off could be
436 +/- 1
PS: This is under the assumption that the current trend of nominations is followed and we do not see a spike in the PNPs
Further, please note, I myself want the cut off to fall as I have not received my ITA. And I hope the cut off continues to fall.
For now, what we all can do is pray that we have back to back draws because that is very much needed.
PS: Please do not bash me for this analysis. I am optimistic but need to be a realist too right?
Finally, someone please invite me to the Yukon party, I hope to get an ITA soon.