In 2025, IRCC plans that 1,262,801 temporary residents will leave Canada, a significant increase from the 588,409 departures estimated for for 2024. The planned numbers of people leaving Canada decreases in subsequent years, with 1,104,658 temporary residents expected to leave in 2026 and 875,129 in 2027.
Some immigration stakeholders are skeptical of these projections. They argue that many temporary residents will choose to remain in Canada by filing Humanitarian and Compassionate applications, seeking asylum, or pursuing other avenues to stay.
The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan is clear that if a large numbers of temporary residents remain in Canada and do not leave, adjustments will be made to the levels of new temporary admissions to maintain the government's target of 5.0% temporary residents in the population.
In practical terms, this means that for every worker or student who stays in 2025-2027 and does not leave as planned, one fewer worker or student will be admitted in the future.
In looking at this chart it is not difficult to envision a scenario where future cuts to international student or foreign worker programs could be much more severe than those seen to date.
To achieve these projected outflows, IRCC will need to ensure that existing temporary residents do not extend or maintain their status. It remains unclear whether this will be accomplished through legislative changes, program reductions, higher refusal rates, or prolonged processing delays that may frustrate individuals into leaving voluntarily.